Tuesday, June 30 2020 20:23

ArmInfo. According to the new  forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2020, the ratio of the  state budget deficit to GDP will be 5% (against the actual 1% in  2019).  As noted in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program for  the second quarter of this year, this level is expected in the  conditions of a deteriorated forecast for GDP for 2020 to a 4%  decline (against the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).

In terms of the ratio of taxes / GDP, the expectations of the Central  Bank are moderate - it is forecasted to be almost equal to the actual  indicator of 2019 at 22.4%. According to the forecasts of the Central  Bank, this year tax revenues will decline by 169.1 billion AMD.

The Central Bank predicts for 2020 the expenditure / GDP ratio at 29%  with a y-o-y growth of 4.3 percentage points. It is appropriate to  note that 150 billion AMD of the economic assistance package are  included in government spending.

The Central Bank's restrained assessment of taxes takes into account  the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy and the  domestic economy of Armenia, the extremely high uncertainty in the  duration of the pandemic with the accompanying negative development  of the situation. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, the  nominal GDP is expected to be lower than the legislatively fixed  indicator, and a slowdown is expected in terms of pace against the  stagnation growth previously forecasted by the Central Bank, under  which a restrained approach to the tax / GDP ratio implies a lower  tax collection than planned in the current year budget.