ArmInfo. In 2022, GDP growth in Armenia will be 4-4.5% at best. This forecast was made by Artur Khachatryan, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, former Minister of Agriculture, now a MP of the RA parliament from the "Hayastan" opposition faction, on December 6 in the National Assembly, touching upon the main macroeconomic indicators laid down in the draft state budget of the republic for 2022.
Thus, according to him, the government's judgments are controversial, and the unfounded optimism underlying the document is of a purely political nature, aimed at curbing the indignation of RA citizens with the daily worsening socio-economic situation in the country.
Khachatryan recalled that both in the government's program of activities for 2021-2026 and in the main financial document for 2022, the financial authorities are aimed at ensuring at least 7% GDP growth, and in a favorable external conditions- 9%. In particular, as stated in the budget message, the projected economic growth is based on measures initiated by the government aimed at increasing the potential for economic growth, such as large-scale public investment in infrastructure; in areas focused on the development of human capital, in the improvement of the business environment; policies aimed at stimulating technological progress, for the export-oriented segment of the economy, which will stimulate not only the implementation of domestic and foreign private, export volumes, but also increase overall productivity. Moreover, the government claims that "in 2021, the Armenian economy entered a phase of recovery" and in 2021, economic growth is expected to reach 6.5%, instead of 3.2% foreseen in the state budget. According to the government, economic growth in 2021 will be mainly driven by the growth of the service sector, and the acceleration of growth in 2022 will be provided by industry and construction. Meanwhile, according to the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, economic activity in Armenia in January-October 2021 increased by 4.3% (against a decline of 6.7% a year earlier), while in the pre-COVID it had a growth of 7.1% ( in the same period 2019).
At the same time, the industrial product price index increased in January-October 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 by 9.9%, in October 2021 compared to October 2020 - by 10.8%. The opposition MP called on the Armenian government to have little hope of maintaining international copper prices. "Copper prices have started to decline at least on Friday evening," he said. The former head of the Ministry of Agriculture recalled that when speaking of economic growth, they mean real growth, that is, nominal growth taking into account the CPI, PPI, deflator and other financial units. Meanwhile, the draft budget for next year states that the GDP deflator will grow by 4.6% (6.8% at the end of 2021), 12-month inflation - 5.2% (7.4% is expected by the end of this year.), and average inflation will reach 5.6% in 2022 (7% is expected in 2021). Taking into account the abovementioned, the opposition faction does not believe in the ability of the Republic of Armenia to ensure 6.5% GDP growth by the end of this year. According to Khachatryan, the government itself does not believe in such expectations, citing Finance Minister Tigran Khachatryan, who on November 17 said in parliament that the forecast for economic growth of 6.5% would most likely not come true. Pointing out that the cumulative economic activity amounted to 4.4% in 9 months, the head of the Ministry of Finance said that the government is revising its forecasts for GDP growth and already expects 6% growth, instead of 6.5% set in the draft budget for next financial year. " "In this regard, we consider it realistic to ensure GDP growth at the level of 4-4.5% in 2022, and only in the conditions of normal economic policy," Arthur Khachatryan concluded.