Saturday, January 22 2022 15:59
Alina Hovhannisyan

Economist: Armenia`s export structure has degraded greatly over the  past 20 years

Economist: Armenia`s export structure has degraded greatly over the  past 20 years

ArmInfo. The structure of Armenia's exports has seriously degraded over the past 20 years. A similar opinion was expressed by  Head of Management Advisory  Services at. Ameria company Tigran Jrbashyan on the air of the First  Channel.

He noted that despite numerous talks about the need for an export  strategy, the state still does not have such a document. According to  the economist the sector, is devoid of a specific focus.

In this regard, Jrbashyan drew attention to the fact that in the  ranking of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology "Index of  Economic Complexity", Armenia approached Kazakhstan as a country  exporting natural resources (copper and molybdenum concentrate). This  means that domestically generated value added in total exports is  constantly declining, he stressed.

According to Jrbashyan, the second set of problems is related to the  concentration of sales markets on the Russian market. In this regard,  he pointed to the growing dependence on the economic situation in the  Russian Federation and on international prices in the metal market.  "For 25 years in export policy, we still give the impression of a  kitten that has just opened its eyes and does not understand which  way to go," the economist stressed.

Jrbashyan also touched upon the system of state agreements on foreign  trade with a number of countries, which, in his opinion, is not  subject to any logical explanation.

The role of the state is to conclude intergovernmental agreements,  create institutions to promote exports, stimulate participation in  exhibitions in a particular country. In this context, Jrbashyan  wondered why the state continues to finance the participation of  Armenian manufacturers in exhibitions held in the Russian Federation.  "I'm not saying that we should not participate there. But why are  taxpayers' funds directed to the participation of Armenian exporters  in those countries where we are already widely represented and which  are quite accessible to us. Why not send these same funds, for  example, to participate in exhibitions held in Africa, Asia, Europe,  the Middle East, etc.," the economist said. According to Jrbashyan,  such a policy is due to the ease of achieving results. The  Head of  Management Advisory Services at Ameria company drew a similar  parallel with the trade representations of Armenia in a number of  countries.

At the same time, Jrbashyan pointed to the absence of institutions  aimed at stimulating exports. Today, according to him, there is a  small infrastructure represented by the Export Insurance Agency,  which is trying to insure the export of SMEs. "Earlier, on our part,  a proposal was made to create an institution akin to the so-called  EXIM Bank (Export-Import Bank), which, on the one hand, would finance  the import of technologies, on the other, the export of finished  products," the expert recalled. In this regard, he noted that the  decision to close the Pan-Armenian Bank was wrong, despite the  inefficiency of its management.  According to the economist, this  infrastructure could be reformed, equating its status with the logic  of the functioning of the EXIM Bank, which would stimulate exports,  which is actually happaning in almost all countries.

In conditions when the government does not have such an  infrastructure, tools to stimulate exports, monetary policy, as the  expert noted, becomes the main headache. "If we look at our real  exchange rate system with our main export partners, we see that over  time our real exchange rate is strengthening and our goods are losing  competitiveness in these markets," he explained.

In this vein, Jrbashyan noted that the country's monetary policy is  not considered from the point of view of economic development,  including export promotion, and the main task is seen solely in the  fight against inflation. The latter is also important, but it is  necessary to define a compromise, a golden mean. However, due to the  lack of an export strategy, the entire economy of the country,  according to him, becomes a prisoner of monetary policy. "The  question is not what the Central Bank's monetary policy should be,  but that the government is "washing its hands" and saying that it  actually does not want to stimulate export- oriented production of  finished goods and services," he noted. According to the economist,  this is a serious problem.

For this reason, Armenia, at times, loses even hard-won export  markets due to periodically emerging serious currency risks, since  when the national currency strengthens, it leads to an increase in  the cost of production and a decrease in the competitiveness of local  production.

In turn, expert, business analyst Elena Khachvankyan added that the  main Armenian export is focused on the export of a narrow limited  line of raw materials and goods that are economically uncomplicated.  These are mining raw materials, cigarettes, tomatoes, alcohol. "That  is, we export what any other country can do without making additional  efforts for this. This leads to the fact that over time our role in  international trade decreases, and with it our productivity  decreases. Because we do not develop, do not accumulate knowledge, do  not try to enter new niches, do not look for innovative solutions, do  not diversify our exports," she said, noting that all this would  allow exporters to protect themselves from external shocks.  Applying  the same approaches, according to Khachvankyan, the state will not be  able to increase productivity and will have nothing to modernize  production. 

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
In Armenian interbank foreign exchange market, dollar transactions decreased while ruble transactions increased from July 7-11, 2025In Armenian interbank foreign exchange market, dollar transactions decreased while ruble transactions increased from July 7-11, 2025
Seven organizations from Armenia to resume flower supplies to RussiaSeven organizations from Armenia to resume flower supplies to Russia
14,757 applications submitted under bad loan program 14,757 applications submitted under bad loan program 
Idram and Alipay+ Facilitate Cross-Border QR Payments in Armenia, Opening the Caucasus to Global Digital Wallet UsersIdram and Alipay+ Facilitate Cross-Border QR Payments in Armenia, Opening the Caucasus to Global Digital Wallet Users
Solid waste management program should be implemented throughout  Armenia - Vardan Kostanyan Solid waste management program should be implemented throughout  Armenia - Vardan Kostanyan 
Rossotrudnichestvo and South Caucasus Railways sign memorandum of  cooperationRossotrudnichestvo and South Caucasus Railways sign memorandum of  cooperation
Ardshinbank Participated in Tech Week Vanadzor 2025Ardshinbank Participated in Tech Week Vanadzor 2025
Armenia, WIPO discussed ways to enhance collaborationArmenia, WIPO discussed ways to enhance collaboration
Gevorg Papoyan: Effective protection of intellectual property is  crucial for sustainable economic growthGevorg Papoyan: Effective protection of intellectual property is  crucial for sustainable economic growth
Daily regulation reservoirs in Hovnanadzor to serve 9 villagesDaily regulation reservoirs in Hovnanadzor to serve 9 villages
Armenia`s government to develop cooperation with jewelry industry Armenia`s government to develop cooperation with jewelry industry 
ADB to provide Armenia with $3mln for school reconstruction in  Voskepat village ADB to provide Armenia with $3mln for school reconstruction in  Voskepat village 
Armenia`s government to direct huge funds to information and  cybersecurity Armenia`s government to direct huge funds to information and  cybersecurity 
Armenia top ratify EAEU agreement on Permissible Weights, Axle Loads and Dimensions of VehiclesArmenia top ratify EAEU agreement on Permissible Weights, Axle Loads and Dimensions of Vehicles
EIB to provide Armenia with EUR 50mln for Armenia - Resilient Syunik programme EIB to provide Armenia with EUR 50mln for Armenia - Resilient Syunik programme 
"Business Process Optimization with AI" – a Course for the Senior Management of AraratBank
IBRD to provide Armenia with EUR 96.4mln for implementation of Tourism and Regional Infrastructure Development programIBRD to provide Armenia with EUR 96.4mln for implementation of Tourism and Regional Infrastructure Development program
Armenia`s government to direct 1.189bln to co-financing of local communities development programmes Armenia`s government to direct 1.189bln to co-financing of local communities development programmes 
ANC condemns nationalization of ENA, violation of property rights ANC condemns nationalization of ENA, violation of property rights 
EAEU countries to start testing transportation digitalization in first half of 2026EAEU countries to start testing transportation digitalization in first half of 2026
Central Bank: RA Law Central Bank: RA Law "On Crypto Assets" entered into force in Armenia on July 4, 2025
Gohar Barseghyan:  EEC consistently promotes the enhancement of industrial cooperationGohar Barseghyan:  EEC consistently promotes the enhancement of industrial cooperation
Armenia`s foreign trade sees sharp decline after neutralization of diamond and gold re-export factorArmenia`s foreign trade sees sharp decline after neutralization of diamond and gold re-export factor
Every year, Lori region loses $40 million due to untapped tourism  potentialEvery year, Lori region loses $40 million due to untapped tourism  potential
We are going round in circles: Aram Kocharyan on  current IT  situation in ArmeniaWe are going round in circles: Aram Kocharyan on  current IT  situation in Armenia
Net direct foreign investments in Armenia`s economy up Net direct foreign investments in Armenia`s economy up 
RA president signs laws nationalizing ENA CJSCRA president signs laws nationalizing ENA CJSC
Responsible innovations instead of offshores - CB Responsible innovations instead of offshores - CB 
Armenia, Uruguay to increase bilateral trade turnover Armenia, Uruguay to increase bilateral trade turnover 
Armenian vice-premier takes part in EEC Council`s meeting Armenian vice-premier takes part in EEC Council`s meeting 
Yerevan to host Black Sea Trade and Development Bank`s Annual Meeting  Yerevan to host Black Sea Trade and Development Bank`s Annual Meeting  
Solid Municipal Waste Management project launched in HrazdanSolid Municipal Waste Management project launched in Hrazdan
Armenian IT sector`s output developed as compared with other regional states - expert Armenian IT sector`s output developed as compared with other regional states - expert 
Lawyer on `legal terror` surrounding ENA Lawyer on `legal terror` surrounding ENA 
AraratBank participated in the WEPs regional experience-sharing workshopAraratBank participated in the WEPs regional experience-sharing workshop
1,507 trucks with apricots leave for Russia since beginning of summer 1,507 trucks with apricots leave for Russia since beginning of summer 
TechWeek transforms Vanadzor into an innovation hubTechWeek transforms Vanadzor into an innovation hub
In Q1 2025, unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 13.9%In Q1 2025, unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 13.9%
Moody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratingsMoody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratings
Armenia`s industrial sector is experiencing a significant  declineArmenia`s industrial sector is experiencing a significant  decline
Power generation in Armenia increased by 3.6% in a yearPower generation in Armenia increased by 3.6% in a year
Armenia`s State Revenue Committee proposes postponing payment of  road, environmental taxes, entry duties Armenia`s State Revenue Committee proposes postponing payment of  road, environmental taxes, entry duties 
46 trucks with Armenian brandy enter Russia 46 trucks with Armenian brandy enter Russia 
Expert: Armenia has every chance to become a key regional  hub for  innovative solutionsExpert: Armenia has every chance to become a key regional  hub for  innovative solutions
IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025
ARMSWISSBANK Launches Mastercard World – A New Premium CardARMSWISSBANK Launches Mastercard World – A New Premium Card
Ministry of Economy: Compared to 2018, job numbers in Armenia  increased by 33.9%Ministry of Economy: Compared to 2018, job numbers in Armenia  increased by 33.9%
Illegal mining in Armenia`s Syunik causes AMD 63mln damage to public Illegal mining in Armenia`s Syunik causes AMD 63mln damage to public 
Rospotrebnadzor requested additional information from competent  authorities in Armenia regarding the reason for the ban of Eskimo ice  cream Rospotrebnadzor requested additional information from competent  authorities in Armenia regarding the reason for the ban of Eskimo ice  cream 
Pashinyan discusses steps for establishing a major AI data center in  ArmeniaPashinyan discusses steps for establishing a major AI data center in  Armenia
In June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and servicesIn June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and services
Armenian products to enter Cyprus and US markets: CIBRS announces National Warehouse program strategyArmenian products to enter Cyprus and US markets: CIBRS announces National Warehouse program strategy
European Investment Bank remains Armenia`s key partner in  infrastructure projects - MinisterEuropean Investment Bank remains Armenia`s key partner in  infrastructure projects - Minister
Armenian Parliament gives  Armenian Parliament gives  "green light" to nationalization of ENA
Armenia`s dividends from ZCMC $113mln since 2022Armenia`s dividends from ZCMC $113mln since 2022
Ardshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholdersArdshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholders
Armenia extends ban on export of scrap metal until Feb. 1 2026 Armenia extends ban on export of scrap metal until Feb. 1 2026 
62 trucks with Armenian brandy cross Russian border 62 trucks with Armenian brandy cross Russian border 
Armenia to fix tariff quota on individual types of goods imported  from Iran Armenia to fix tariff quota on individual types of goods imported  from Iran 
Narek Karapetyan: Almost all infrastructure companies, except for  ENA, have increased their tariffs for servicesNarek Karapetyan: Almost all infrastructure companies, except for  ENA, have increased their tariffs for services
Read more
Exchange rates
11.07.2025
RUB4.930.00
USD383.910.17
EUR448.91-1.14
GBP519.24-2.57
CAD280.37-0.31
JPY26.15-0.11
CNY53.560.07
CHF482.48-0.58