ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia forecast inflation to approach the target threshold (4%, +/-1.5) by the end of 2022. Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Martin Galstyan said this during the press conference on raising the refinancing rate on February 1, forecasting 5-5.5% inflation for 2022.
The head of the Central Bank, referring to the baseline scenario, stressed that in 2022 inflation in the food market will not repeat the trend of 2021: "There will be an increase in prices, but the pace will slow down."
M. Galstyan indicated that, given the increase since February this year, tariffs for electricity and water, as well as certain impact of spillovers associated with uncertainty about changes in gas tariffs, according to the analysis of the assumed scenario, the change in regulated prices will have an upward impact on headline inflation by 1-1.5 percentage points.
At the same time, he positively assessed the work of the Central Bank in 2021: "Estimates show that without the implemented measures of the Regulator, in general, inflation in the country would have reached 15%, and food prices would have risen above 22%."
According to statistics, in December 2021, official y-o-y inflation in the consumer market of Armenia amounted to 1.6%, and y-o-y inflation (December 2021 to December 2020) reached 7.7%, against respectively inflationary 3.4% in December and 3.7% per annum in 2020. And the core inflation calculated by the Central Bank for December 2021 was 0.6%, and y-o-y 7.3% (December 2021 to December 2020), against respectively inflationary 1.7% for December and 3.6% per annum in 2020. Meanwhile, the forecast of the Central Bank, updated at the end of December, forecasted higher inflation of 8.4% for 2021, with a further decline in 2022 to 5.5%.
