ArmInfo. The World Bank (WB) forecasts a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in 2023 to 4.3% (from an estimated 7% growth in 2022), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - to 4-5% (from an estimated 11% growth in 2022).
In terms of inflation, both the WB and the IMF forecast a decline to 6.7% and 6%, respectively (from an estimated 8.5% for 2022). The rationale for these forecasts is given in the October reports of the WB - Europe and Central Asia Economic Update (ECA) "Social Protection for Recovery", and the IMF - World Economic Outlook "Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis. Rising cost of living due to energy crisis and war in Ukraine ". Later, in early November, the IMF has updated its forecast for the improvement of Armenia's GDP to double-digit growth in 2022, along with which the mid-term growth range has been raised.
The 2023 forecast of the RA Central Bank regarding GDP growth is the same: 4.5%, but according to the estimated growth for 2022, the difference is significant compared to the WB's expectation - 12.9% versus 7%, while not much different from the IMF's November forecast (11%). In terms of inflation, the expectations of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia for 2023 are closer to the WB forecast: a decrease in official y-o-y inflation to 7% (from estimated 8.6% for 2022), and a decrease in core y-o-y inflation to 6.7% (from estimated 8.7% for 2022). ). However, in its forecast update scheduled for November, the Central Bank is likely to adjust its expectations for GDP growth for 2022 as well as inflation for 2022 and 2023, taking into account new factors that have not been taken into account in the September forecast.
Armenia's neighbors Will have lower GDP growth in 2023
According to the WB forecast, the GDP growth in Azerbaijan will slow down to 2.8% in 2023 (from estimated 4.2% for 2022), and according to the IMF forecast - up to 2.5% (from estimated 3.7% for 2022). And according to the WB forecast, inflation in Azerbaijan will decrease in 2023 to 9.5% (from an estimated 12.5% for 2022), which is almost similar to the IMF's expectations of up to 9% (from an estimated 12.5% for 2022).
According to the WB forecast, GDP growth in Turkey will slow down to 2.7% in 2023 (from an estimated 4.7% for 2022), and according to the IMF forecast - to 3% (from an estimated 5% for 2022). And according to the WB forecast, inflation in Turkeywill decrease in 2023 to 45% (from an estimated 75% for 2022), which is almost similar to the IMF's expectations of a decline to 36.9% in 2023 (from an estimated 73.5% for 2022).
According to the forecast of the World Bank, the GDP growth in Georgia will slow down to 4.2% in 2023, (from an estimated 8.8% for 2022), and according to the IMF forecast - to 4% (from an estimated 9% for 2022). And according to the WB forecast, inflation in Georgia will decrease to 7% in 2023 (from an estimated 10.6% for 2022), and the IMF expects a more noticeable decline- up to 3.8% (from an estimated 9% for 2022).
The IMF forecast report also provides expectations for Iran: a slowdown in GDP growth in 2023 to 2% (from an estimated 3% for 2022), and a decrease in inflation to 35% (from an estimated 45% for 2022).
