Monday, July 17 2023 19:52

Services sector still influences economic growth dynamics in Armenia  - EDB

Services sector still influences economic growth dynamics in Armenia  - EDB

ArmInfo.  All sectors positively influence the dynamics of economic growth in Armenia, but the services sector still plays the main role. However, monthly data since the beginning of the year show that services growth is gradually slowing down - this is largely due to last year's strong performance and demand adjustment.  This is stated in the regular Macroeconomic Review published today, prepared by analysts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).

It is noted that the Armenian economy maintains high growth rates,  trade and construction are gaining momentum. Deflation took place in  June. The Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia reduced the  refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage points up to 10.5%. Economic  activity in January-May increased by 12.5% y/y.

At the same time, as analysts note, growth in trade and construction  is increasing. This trend will continue until the end of the year,  which will somewhat slow down the pace of economic activity. The  economy is supported, among other things, by significant volumes of  remittances and net exports and continued high tourist activity. The  inflow of cross-border transfers of individuals increased 2.4-fold in  Jan-April of this year and amounted to $2.1 billion. According to  their forecasts, despite a slight slowdown, the growth rate of the  Armenian economy will remain high and will amount to 7.5% by the end  of the year.

Strong dynamics remain in almost all sectors of the Armenian economy.  The service sector showed an increase of 19.9% y/y in Jan-May, more  than 70% of the dynamics was provided by the expansion of the IT and  transport industries (by 27.7% y/y and 45.3% y/y, respectively, in  Jan-May) . The construction and manufacturing industries also showed  strong growth since the beginning of the year. Processing industries  in Jan-May grew by 7.2% y/y, while the mining industry continued to  decline (- 5.3% y/y). The volume of completed construction works  increased by 15.6% y/y in Jan-May. This was facilitated by  construction financed by organizations (+44.8% y/y). More than half  of the volume of work in the sector falls on housing construction  against the backdrop of high growth rates of mortgage lending (+30.7%  y/y in May).

At the same time, the cost volumes of exports of goods continue to  grow at a rate that outpaces imports. In Jan-May of the current year,  export deliveries increased by 93.3% y/y. Machinery and equipment,  precious stones and metals, vehicles play the main role in the  dynamics of exports of goods. Import volumes in Jan- May increased  for all commodity groups (+83.3% y/y). Maintaining a stronger growth  rate of exports compared to imports contributes, among other things,  to fixing the exchange rate of the Armenian dram at the highest level  over the past decade.

Since the beginning of 2023, the national currency has continued to  grow steadily in value. At the end of June, compared to the beginning  of the year, the Armenian dram appreciated against the basket of  currencies of trading partner countries. The dram appreciated against  the dollar by 2.3%, against the euro - by 2.1%, against the Russian  ruble - by 18.3%. At the end of May, the level of international  foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3.7 billion dollars - the  figure has been close to this level since the beginning of the year.  In the near future, the dram's appreciation will be supported by the  maintenance of a high level of remittances and the growth of exports  exceeding imports, as well as the high activity of tourism in the  summer months. By the end of the year, the Armenian currency may  depreciate somewhat compared to the current level - as the tourist  season ends, demand for mineral products imports increases and money  market rates decrease. Nevertheless, the overvaluation of the  Armenian dram will remain until the end of the year.

According to EDB experts, the appreciation of the Armenian dram may  limit the growth of some sectors of the economy and shift resources  to non-exportable sectors. As of May, the nominal exchange rate  against a basket of currencies appreciated by 51% compared to the  beginning of 2022. This adversely affects the price competitiveness  of exports and increases demand for imports. At the same time, the  inflow of additional income increases demand in the services and  trade sectors, including the demand for labor, which over time may  cause the flow of production resources into these sectors and reduce  the role of the industrial sector of the economy.  

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Armenia`s seismic safety and disaster risk management priority for  ADBArmenia`s seismic safety and disaster risk management priority for  ADB
Armenia  among TOP-3 countries whose citizens prefer to vacation in  GeorgiaArmenia  among TOP-3 countries whose citizens prefer to vacation in  Georgia
New campaign in ECCO stores from IDBank and IdramNew campaign in ECCO stores from IDBank and Idram
Industrial price index  growing with industrial sector sagging Industrial price index  growing with industrial sector sagging 
Financial agreement  for construction of the Sisian-Kajaran road  debatedFinancial agreement  for construction of the Sisian-Kajaran road  debated
Armenia`s economic activity is losing momentum, with foreign trade  also saggingArmenia`s economic activity is losing momentum, with foreign trade  also sagging
Another early placement - Converse Bank dollar bonds sold in a matter  of daysAnother early placement - Converse Bank dollar bonds sold in a matter  of days
Armenia Minister of Finance held meetings in Washington as part of  the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank GroupArmenia Minister of Finance held meetings in Washington as part of  the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group
2024 another year of unkept promises - opposition MP2024 another year of unkept promises - opposition MP
Balchug Capital completes acquisition of Goldman Sachs` Russian unitBalchug Capital completes acquisition of Goldman Sachs` Russian unit
Tax policy much more complicated - businessman Tax policy much more complicated - businessman 
Fab Lab digital production laboratory opened in GyumriFab Lab digital production laboratory opened in Gyumri
What Types of Online Fraud Exist Today?What Types of Online Fraud Exist Today?
Armenia`s Cabinet of Ministers approves program to support  development of air transportationArmenia`s Cabinet of Ministers approves program to support  development of air transportation
What strategy will be used to implement a gender policy in Armenia, a  country with a predominantly female population and a notable gender disparity in employment?What strategy will be used to implement a gender policy in Armenia, a  country with a predominantly female population and a notable gender disparity in employment?
KfW allocates EUR 5.3mln for agricultural insurance in Armenia; EUR  500,000 to be directed to consultationsKfW allocates EUR 5.3mln for agricultural insurance in Armenia; EUR  500,000 to be directed to consultations
AMD 209mln allocated from Armenia`s state budget for repayment of bad  loans AMD 209mln allocated from Armenia`s state budget for repayment of bad  loans 
Armenia`s Cabinet approves procedure for affixing CIS customs seals  and stamps on transport documents Armenia`s Cabinet approves procedure for affixing CIS customs seals  and stamps on transport documents 
China preparing to open new chapter of  One Belt, One Road initiative  with involvement of Armenia - diplomat China preparing to open new chapter of  One Belt, One Road initiative  with involvement of Armenia - diplomat 
Armenia remains among EAEU leaders - Eldar Alisherov Armenia remains among EAEU leaders - Eldar Alisherov 
Construction of landfill in Hrazdan completedConstruction of landfill in Hrazdan completed
US Ambassador to Armenia meets with Westinghouse representativesUS Ambassador to Armenia meets with Westinghouse representatives
As a landlocked developing country, Armenia reiterates importance of  inclusive connectivity and open borders - Deputy FMAs a landlocked developing country, Armenia reiterates importance of  inclusive connectivity and open borders - Deputy FM
Armenia risks losing EAEU benefits if the West drags it into its  geopolitical games - Russian Deputy FMArmenia risks losing EAEU benefits if the West drags it into its  geopolitical games - Russian Deputy FM
Team establishing a 1-hectare forest in LoriTeam establishing a 1-hectare forest in Lori
Armenian NA approves amendments   to Tax Code postponing submission of  individual income statements Armenian NA approves amendments to Tax Code postponing submission of  individual income statements 
Counterfeit alcoholic beverage production exposed in Armenia Counterfeit alcoholic beverage production exposed in Armenia 
Armenian NA committee approves postponement of deadlines for   individual income statements  Armenian NA committee approves postponement of deadlines for   individual income statements  
AraratBank: Main Sponsoring Partner of STEM Expo 2025AraratBank: Main Sponsoring Partner of STEM Expo 2025
Armenia  establishing tourism cooperation with  Alsace, FranceArmenia  establishing tourism cooperation with  Alsace, France
Only 35,000 of 900,000 indviduals submitted income statements in 2024  - MPOnly 35,000 of 900,000 indviduals submitted income statements in 2024  - MP
Continued lending activity allows Armenian banks to increase profits  at double-digit ratesContinued lending activity allows Armenian banks to increase profits  at double-digit rates
Dominant faction of RA NA proposes postponing submission of  individual income returns Dominant faction of RA NA proposes postponing submission of  individual income returns 
The Merger between The Merger between "Ardshinbank" CJSC and "Ardshininvestbank" CJSC Has Been Completed
Pashinyan emphasizes the importance of developing a common economic  roadmap aimed at serving Armenia`s interestsPashinyan emphasizes the importance of developing a common economic  roadmap aimed at serving Armenia`s interests
Dollar transactions decreased and  ruble transactions increased in  Armenia`s interbank foreign exchange market, April 14-18, 2025Dollar transactions decreased and  ruble transactions increased in  Armenia`s interbank foreign exchange market, April 14-18, 2025
20% idcoin at Carpisa: IDBank and Idram’s new campaign20% idcoin at Carpisa: IDBank and Idram’s new campaign
In Q1 2025, Armenia`s public debt increased by approximately $740  million, reaching $13.6 billionIn Q1 2025, Armenia`s public debt increased by approximately $740  million, reaching $13.6 billion
Armenia`s opposition forces propose suspending property tax increase Armenia`s opposition forces propose suspending property tax increase 
ANIF embezzled budgetary funds - Transparency International ANIF embezzled budgetary funds - Transparency International 
WB launches $100 million project in Armenia to enhance local tourism   infrastructureWB launches $100 million project in Armenia to enhance local tourism   infrastructure
South Caucasus Railway improving platforms for passengers` comfortSouth Caucasus Railway improving platforms for passengers` comfort
IBRD to issue EUR 102mln to Armenia for improving medical services  quality IBRD to issue EUR 102mln to Armenia for improving medical services  quality 
State Control Service to supervise state budget execution State Control Service to supervise state budget execution 
Founder of Mantashyants business unioin critical of Armenia`s State  Revenue Committee Founder of Mantashyants business unioin critical of Armenia`s State  Revenue Committee 
Armenia to support IT companies in hiring foreign specialists, new  employees and  retraining personnelArmenia to support IT companies in hiring foreign specialists, new  employees and  retraining personnel
EAEU companies  given green light for cabotage transportation in  ArmeniaEAEU companies  given green light for cabotage transportation in  Armenia
Armenia`s Cabinet of Ministers gives go-ahead for extending deadline  for individuals to file declarationsArmenia`s Cabinet of Ministers gives go-ahead for extending deadline  for individuals to file declarations
5,237,825 AMD for the “City of Heroes Rehabilitation Center”: April’s beneficiary is the “4090” Foundation5,237,825 AMD for the “City of Heroes Rehabilitation Center”: April’s beneficiary is the “4090” Foundation
AraratBank to introduce a leasing solution with up to 35% cashback opportunity at Leasing EXPO 2025AraratBank to introduce a leasing solution with up to 35% cashback opportunity at Leasing EXPO 2025
Digital identity, digital authentication, and secure transactions: the imID office is officially openedDigital identity, digital authentication, and secure transactions: the imID office is officially opened
RA Tourism Committee: Tourist flow to Armenia continues to declineRA Tourism Committee: Tourist flow to Armenia continues to decline
AraratBank and FMO Expand Cooperation with a $25 Million Loan AgreementAraratBank and FMO Expand Cooperation with a $25 Million Loan Agreement
Ardshinbank Named Best Bank in Armenia in Four Categories by Global Banking & Finance ReviewArdshinbank Named Best Bank in Armenia in Four Categories by Global Banking & Finance Review
EDB provides of $78,000 grant for System of Electronic Vehicle  Passports in ArmeniaEDB provides of $78,000 grant for System of Electronic Vehicle  Passports in Armenia
Upper Lars checkpoint closed for transport Upper Lars checkpoint closed for transport 
Conversbank starts primary placement of $10mln coupon bonds Conversbank starts primary placement of $10mln coupon bonds 
SCR investment program for 2025 to exceed 2 bln dramsSCR investment program for 2025 to exceed 2 bln drams
Achilles` heel of  Armenia`s tax systemAchilles` heel of  Armenia`s tax system
Armenian authorities willing to improve concession agreement with  America AirportsArmenian authorities willing to improve concession agreement with  America Airports
Read more
Exchange rates
25.04.2025
RUB4.730.02
USD390.330.77
EUR443.14-1.00
GBP519.571.42
CAD281.08-0.84
JPY27.23-0.20
CNY53.560.12
CHF470.73-2.09