ArmInfo.Armenia's GDP in Jan-Sept 2023 slowed down in y-o- y growth from 21% to 12%, almost returning to the rate of two years ago (11.1% in the same period of 2021). At current prices, the absolute value of GDP for 9 months of this year amounted to 6.5 trillion drams ($16.5 billion), against last year's 5.8 trillion drams ($14.2 billion). Of this amount, 40% or 2.6 trillion drams ($6.6 billion) were provided in Q3 2023, against 41.4% or 2.4 trillion drams in Q3 2022, according to the data of the RA Statistical Committee.
The quarterly dynamics of GDP was negative in Q1 alone - by 36.3%, with a positive 16.5% dynamics in Q2 and with an acceleration of the upward pace to 27.2% in Q3, which repeated the quarterly dynamics of 2022, but in more modest values, since a year ago a 36% decline in Q1 was followed by 19.8% growth in Q2, with the pace accelerating to 29.5% inQ3.
The GDP deflator index for 9 months of 2023 showed a quarterly slowdown in growth - from 107.3% in Q1 to 103.1% in Q2, followed by a slowdown to 101% in Q3. In the comparable period of 2022, a deceleration of the growth rate, albeit a slight one, was observed only in Q2, from 106.8% to 106.6%, and already in Q3, an acceleration to 108.6% was recorded. GDP per capita quarterly during Jan-Sept of this year increased from 600.249 thousand drams ($1529) in Q1 to 716.830 thousand drams ($1852) in Q2 and subsequently reaching 862.991 thousand drams ($2233) in Q3. In 2022, the dynamics of GDP per capita increased from 501.315 thousand drams ($1031) in Q1 to 641.146 thousand drams ($1425) in Q2 and to 802.116 thousand drams ($1963) in Q3. Such an increase in GDP per capita is recorded against the background of the y-o-y increase of the population of Armenia by 23.2 thousand people up to 2.994 million people by October 1, 2023, while in the same period of 2022, per capita GDP showed growth with a modest increase in population by 3.5 thousand people. It is worth noting that such population growth is due to an impressive flow of immigrants, many of whom preferred to obtain residence permits and temporarily settle in Armenia.
Double-digit y-o-y GDP growth in Jan-Sept 2023 was recorded mainly due to the: the trade sector - 22.9%, the construction sector - 17% and the service sector - 13.4%, and to a small extent the agricultural sector - 1.7%, while the industrial sector was in decline by 0.6%. The dynamics of the energy complex are not given due to changes in the calculation methodology and incomparability with last year's indicators. A year earlier, in Jan-Sept2022, the highest growth rate was shown by the service sector - 27.1%, followed closely by the energy sector - 16.9%, the trade sector - 14.5%, the construction sector - 14.3% and the industrial sector - 10%. Only the agricultural sector was in decline - by 0.7%. A slowdown in y-o-y growth was also observed in foreign trade. Thus, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in Jan-Sept 2023 stalled in growth from 62.5% to 45.8%, which was due to the slowdown in the growth of exports and imports - from 63.8-61.6% to 44.8-46.4 %.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, in its forecast for 2023 updated in September, improved the expected GDP growth from the previous 6.9% to 7.2%, while expecting a slowdown in 2024 to 5.6%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Armenia's GDP growth in 2023 by 5.5%, with a slight slowdown in 2024 to 5%. The World Bank (WB) expects 4.4% economic growth in Armenia in 2023, with the pace accelerating to 4.8% in 2024. The EBRD forecasts Armenia's GDP growth by 6.5% for 2023, with a slowdown in 2024 to 4.5%. The draft RA budget for 2024 envisages 7% economic growth, similar to the rate envisaged in the RA budget for 2023. According to actual statistical data, Armenia's GDP in 2022 accelerated in growth to double-digit 12.6% (from 5.8% in 2021), exceeding 8.5 trillion drams (21.6 billion, at the exchange rate of 393.57 AMD/$1 as of December 31, 2022). (The settlement exchange rate of the dram against the US dollar as of September 30, 2023 revalued to 393.40 AMD/$1 from 405.65 AMD/$1 as of September, 2022).
