Tuesday, June 25 2024 17:54

ArmInfo.The growth of economic activity in Armenia slowed down to 11.2% per annum in January-May  2024(from 12.5% in the same period of 2023). But, unlike last year, now the industrial sector is the driving force of growth. According to preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, this is accompanied by continued high growth rates of exports and imports.

Although the preliminary statistical report does not provide for the  disclosure of more detailed information, nevertheless, judging by the  data of previous months, the high growth of industrial production no  longer stems from the jewelry industry, which has shown a  several-fold increase in previous periods, but is now experiencing a  decline.

In particular, the high growth of the industrial sector is now  supported to a greater extent by the production of basic metals,  electrical equipment, and to a slightly lesser extent by the  production of finished metal products, furniture, woodworking  industry, leather production and metallurgy. Moreover, it is the  production of basic metals that has become the leader in the  industrial sector not only in impressive growth rates, but also in  volume, whereas previously the leader was the food industry, for  which the protracted decline cost the loss of leadership. According  to statistics, the growth of economic activity in January-May 2024  was largely determined by the trade sector, with a slight  acceleration in growth rates from 24.5% to 24.6% and the industrial  sector, with a sharp acceleration in y-o-y growth rates from 3% to  22%. A slowdown in growth during this period was recorded in the  construction sector, from 16.7% to 14.9% and in the services sector,  from 19.9% to 3.7%. Against this background, the y-o-y dynamics of  the energy complex slightly improved, with a 1.5% increase from a  3.1% decline. Data on the agricultural sector are not provided in  this statistical report, since they are published only quarterly.  According to statistical data for January-May 2024, the trade sector  holds the lead in absolute terms, with a volume of over 2.2 trillion  drams ($5.6 billion). The second place in terms of volume is occupied  by the service sector - 1.3 trillion drams ($3.2 billion), the third  place is occupied by the industrial sector - 1.2 trillion ($2.97  billion), and due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector the  fourth place is occupied by the construction sector - 150.7 billion  drams ($378.9 million). The volume of electricity generation in  January-May 2024 amounted to 3685.7 million kWh, of which 634.2  million kWh were generated in April alone. Notably, the volumes of  the industrial sector have almost equaled the volumes of the services  sector, whereas previously the gap was quite noticeable. This was the  result of the greatly accelerated growth of the industrial sector and  the sharply slowed growth of the services sector.  However, in May  2024, compared to May 2023, economic activity slowed down in growth  more impressively to 5.2% (from 13.7% a year earlier), and it rose 2%  in May alone from a 0.1% decline in April (against the acceleration  of growth from 3.4% to 7.7% in May 2023). Moreover, the industrial  sector lingered in decline in May 2024, with a slowdown in rates from  13.1% to 0.2%, while an acceleration of growth was recorded from 1.6%  to 9.9% in May 2023. Along with the industrial sector, the decline in  the energy complex also slowed down in May (from 15.4% to 5%). At the  same time, the service sector reversed its dynamics from a 2.8%  decline towards 0.4% growth, the construction sector accelerated in  growth from 15.8% to 20.1%, and the trade sector lingered at 1.4%  growth. In y-o-y terms (May 2024 to May 2023), all sectors showed an  upward trend, and even the energy complex experienced growth from the  recession. In particular, the highest y-o-y double-digit growth was  shown by the construction sector - 18.1% and the trade sector -  17.6%, followed by the energy complex - 7.3%, the industrial sector -  6.9% and the service sector - 2.8%. A year earlier, in May 2023,  compared to May 2022, the energy sector was in decline by 2%, and  among other sectors, higher growth was shown by the trade sector -  28.6%, the construction sector - by 18.4% and the services sector -  12.3%, while the industrial sector's growth of 5.3% was more modest  than the current rate. Against this background, Armenia's foreign  trade turnover exceeded 6.5 trillion drams in January-May 2024 (over  $16.3 billion), with an acceleration of the already high y-o-y growth  rate to 2.2-fold (from 86.9% in the same period of 2023). This is due  to the acceleration of high y-o- y growth rates of both exports -  from 93.3% to 2.5 times, and imports - from 83.3% to 99.6%, the  absolute value of which was 2.8 trillion and 3.7 trillion drams ($7.1  billion and $9.3 billion), respectively.  In May 2024, compared to  May 2023, foreign trade turnover slowed down in growth from 50.5% to  32.2%, which was due to a slowdown in import growth from 52.1% to  17.2% with an acceleration in export growth - from 47.6% to 57.4%.

Notably, since 2023, the methodology for calculating the volumes of  generated electricity has changed in statistical reports, in  particular, the volumes of electricity generated by autonomous  producers also began to be taken into account. For the agricultural  sector, data is published only in quarterly and annual statistical  reports. (The average calculated exchange rate of the dram was 397.69  AMD/$1 in January-May 2024).