ArmInfo."We need to expand the circle of our international partners. In the modern world, no country can exist in complete isolation. They all interact with other states, and the wider the network of these connections, the more stable the country's position," said Doctor of Economics, head and founder of the Alternative analytical center Tatul Manaseryan at a press conference on July 16.
He emphasized that dependence on one country or group of countries is not a threat as long as we have the opportunity to diversify our sources of interaction. "Small countries are obliged to establish cooperation with all stakeholders, adapting the rules of the game in order to stay afloat," Manaseryan said.
At the same time, the expert called the expression "sit on two chairs" unacceptable in relation to Armenia. He called for a global look at the situation. As an example, Manaseryan cited Kazakhstan, which, being an active member of the CSTO, signed a strategic partnership agreement with the UK. said the economist.
As the expert emphasized, the new world order will show that Armenia can and should cooperate with all countries that do not experience hostility or skepticism towards it. Tatul Manaseryan also noted that no one forbids Armenia to diversify its ties, but this does not mean abandoning the already existing successful, profitable and friendly regional cooperation.
"It is important to remember that our foreign policy, including economic policy, must serve national interests," Manaseryan emphasized.
According to the economist, Armenia today supplies the EU market mainly with raw materials, slightly less semi-finished products, and very small volumes of finished products. While Armenia exports finished products to the Eurasian Economic Union. He recalled that in 2023, the growth of Armenia's foreign trade turnover amounted to more than 46%, of which almost 41% falls on the Eurasian Economic Union, primarily on the Russian Federation.
Thus, according to Tatul Manaseryan, the strategy of diversification and broad international cooperation is the key to sustainable development and strengthening Armenia's position in the global market.
According to the Statistics Committee, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia with the EAEU countries in 2023 amounted to $7.6 billion, with growth slowing to 42.7% (from 92.7% in 2022), against the backdrop of a sharper slowdown in export growth to 40.8% ( from 2.8 times in 2022) - up to $3.6 billion than imports - up to 44.6% (from 49% in 2022) - up to $4 billion.
The growth of Armenia's foreign trade turnover with EU countries also slowed down from 43.8% to 17.1%, amounting to $2.7 billion, due to deterioration in export dynamics from 17.8% growth to 8.2% decline and slowdown in import growth from 62.1% to 30%, the volumes of which amounted to $709.5 million and $1.96 billion, respectively. As a result, the negative balance of foreign trade increased in 2023 both in the direction of the EAEU - by 91.5% to $397.4 million, and the EU - by 70 % to $1.3 billion, while a year earlier there were multidirectional dynamics - a decline in the balance towards the EAEU by 74.5% with a jump in the balance towards the EU by 2.7 times.
In January-May 2024 Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU countries reached $7.6 billion, with annual growth accelerating from 2 times to 2.7 times. This was due to a sharp acceleration in import growth from 42.6% to 5 times, with a deterioration in export dynamics from an increase of 3.4 times to an 18.7% decline, the volumes of which amounted to $6.4 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively.
With the EU countries, Armenia's foreign trade turnover turned the annual dynamics from 50.3% growth towards a 23.7% decline, amounting to $877.4 million, due to the deterioration of the import trend from a 2-fold increase towards 23.2% decline while accelerating the decline in exports from 12.9% to 25%, the volumes of which amounted to $648.3 million and $229.1 million, respectively.
As a result, the share of the EAEU in exports decreased over the year from 53.8% to 17.6%, increasing in imports from 27.8% to 69.1%, in both cases at the expense of Russia, and the share of EU countries decreased both in exports from 10.7% to 3.2%, and in imports from 18.2% to 7%, mainly due to Germany and the Netherlands.
