ArmInfo. In 2024, Armenia's economic growth may exceed 8.5%, depending on the trends observed during the second half of this year. Doctor of Economics, professor, and head of the Research Center "Alternative," Tatul Manaseryan, who is also a member of the Eurasian Expert Club, made this statement during a press conference on August 28, while presenting the Club's assessment.
"But if the trends we observed in the first half of the year continue, then 8.5% growth is quite realistic. We believe we can achieve even more, despite the fact that production volumes in most industrial sectors have slowed down after the high levels recorded in 2022-2023, and there has been a noticeable decline in re- exports by the end of the year," he emphasized. According to the expert, these dynamics will be facilitated by the high growth rates of construction, which have already increased by 15.7% in January-June of this year. Manaseryan noted that this growth will continue by inertia. Another influential factor will be a significant increase of private transfers, which, according to the economist, is already observed today. As of August this year, the volume of private transfers exceeded $ 3 billion. "Additionally, there has been a notable rise in shadow transfers in Armenia, which will artificially boost the purchasing power of the population. As a result, the volume of consumption of goods and services, including local ones, will increase," he said. Regarding the capital outflow from Armenia, the economist stated that it decreased by almost 5%, totaling $1.9 billion.
In addition, seasonal factors such as an increase in tourist traffic and favorable conditions for agriculture development will significantly contribute to economic growth. During the press conference, Manaseryan also mentioned the forecasts of international organizations. In particular, the expert stated that the EDB forecasts Armenia's GDP growth to be 7.5% in 2024 and 4.2% in the following year. The WB expects the Armenian economy to grow by 5.5% in 2024, with a slight slowdown to 4.9% in 2025. The IMF forecasts a 6% economic growth in 2024. The EBRD forecasts economic growth in Armenia to be 6.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. The ADB expects a 5.7% economic growth in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Fitch Ratings believes that Armenia's economic growth will be 6% in 2024, slowing to 4.9% in 2025. S&P forecasts a 6.2% economic growth in Armenia in 2024, while the UN estimates that Armenia's economy will grow by 5.2% in 2024, slowing to 4.8% in 2025. The state budget for 2024 includes economic growth at the level of 7%, and the Central Bank expects Armenia's economic growth in 2024 to fluctuate between 6.1%-6.8%.
Manaseryan also mentioned that the state budget for 2024 includes a target inflation rate of 4% (+1.5%). Referring to the Central Bank's report on monetary policy, he pointed out that by the end of 2024, inflation in Armenia is expected to range from 0.9-1.3%, in 2025 from 3.8-3.2%, and in 2026 - up to 4%. Additionally, the economist suggested that the Regulator may reduce the key rate by 0.25% again, emphasizing its importance for further economic recovery. However, he also highlighted that this alone is not sufficient for economic development. In turn, political analyst and coordinator of the Eurasian Expert Club Aram Safaryan added that in the first half of 2025, most economic sectors within the framework of the EAEU will experience a decline. "But this should not frighten us or become a reason for speculation. The recession will come to an end in the second half of next year, and we will again reach a recovery growth. This year we forecast a high GDP and economic activity index. We agree with the forecasts of international organizations that these figures will noticeably decrease in 2025," he noted.
