ArmInfo.In the consumer market of Armenia, annual inflation in September amounted to 0.6%, with a deflation of 1.1% for the first nine months of 2024. Comparatively, a year ago, during the same periods, annual inflation was recorded at 0.1% and nine-month deflation at 2.3%. This is evidenced by the data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia for January- July 2024.
In September 2024, inflation compared to September 2023 was primarily due to a 3.6% increase in service tariffs, accompanied by a 0.5% decrease in food prices and a 1.7% decrease in non-food products. To provide context, in the previous year (September 2023 to September 2022), inflation was driven by a 3.2% increase in service prices, with only food products experiencing a 1.9% decrease in price, while non-food prices remained stable. From January to September 2024, deflation was observed as food and non-food product prices decreased by 3.4% and 2.7%, respectively, while service tariffs increased by 3.1%.
For comparison, we note that in January-September 2023, higher deflation was also seen in a decrease in the price of food and non-food products by 6.4% and 0.9%, while service tariffs showed growth, albeit at a lower rate of 2.4%. Looking at the annual basis (January-September 2024 to January-September 2023), the zero consumer price index compared to the inflation rate of 2.8% a year earlier, was a result of a decrease in the prices of food and non-food products by 2.1% and 0.4%, with an increase in service tariffs by 3%. In the previous year, from January-September 2023 to January-September 2022, the recorded inflation was influenced to a lesser extent by the increase in the price of food and non-food products - by 1.5% and 2.2%, compared to an increase in tariffs for services by 5%.
Among food products, the most noticeable annual increases (September 2024 to September 2023) were for coffee - by 9.2%, eggs - by 8%, sugar and granulated sugar - by 7.4%, chocolate - by 4.3%, tea - by 2.4%, butter - by 1.2%, flour - by 1%, and fruit - by 1%. The prices for the following food products decreased year-on-year: margarine - by 16.3%, buckwheat - by 12.2%, wheat groats (dzavar) - by 6.7%, pasta - by 6.2%, sunflower oil - by 6.1%, spelt (achar) - by 4.7%, vegetables - by 4.3%, trout - by 3.4%, flour - by 3.3%, milk - by 1.8%, pork and beef - by 4.5% and 0.6%, respectively, bread - by 0.4%. Of the alcoholic beverages, vodka increased in price year-on-year by 10.3%, beer - by 3.4%, and wine fell in price by 2%. The annual growth in cigarette prices slowed from 11.4% to 1.3%.
In the non-food market, from September 2023 to September 2024, prices for jewelry increased by 12.7%, large and small household electrical appliances by 3.4-2%, gardening tools by 3.3%, medicines by 2.3%, and tools and accessories by 0.2%. However, disposable household goods became cheaper - by 8.4%, clothing and footwear - by 4.1% and 2.3%, respectively, medical equipment and devices - by 3.3%, building materials - by 3.1%, and dishes and kitchen utensils - by 0.7%. Gasoline prices remain stable, while diesel fuel prices fell by 1.5%. It is worth noting, that a year earlier, gasoline prices increased by 0.4% and diesel fuel prices decreased by 17.4%.
In January-September 2024, gasoline and diesel fuel prices fell by 5% and 7.8% respectively. This is a significant decrease compared to January-September 2023, when gasoline prices rose by 18.1%, and diesel fuel prices fell by 6.2%. In September alone, gasoline prices increased by 2.5%, and diesel fuel prices decreased by 0.1%. As for the increase in services tariffs, there have been notable year-on-year price hikes in various sectors. Services related to personal vehicles - by 3.1 times, comprehensive services in the field of organizing recreation - by 27.6%, services in the field of transport - by 17% and related to vehicle insurance - by 13.6%. In the education sector, prices have gone high by 12.3-7%, and for home repairs, furniture and household appliances - by 3.5-2.3%.
The growth of tariffs for financial services has significantly slowed down from 13.1% to 1.8%, for hotels- from 7% to 1.7%, and for medical services from 5.9% to 2.5%. The services of hairdressers and spa salons have risen much more noticeably - by 5.9% compared to 1.6% a year ago. In January-September 2024, there was a deflation of 1.1% along with a strengthening of the dram against the US dollar by 4.2%, mirroring the trend observed a year earlier with deflation of 2.3% and a dram revaluation against the dollar by 1.9%. In September 2024, compared to September 2023, there was an inflation rate of 0.6%, the dram weakened against the dollar by 0.1% - to AMD 387.40 / $ 1 (from AMD 386.90 / $ 1 a year earlier). In the previous year, there was an inflation rate of 0.1% and the dram had strengthened against the dollar by 5.4%.
It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts inflation in 2024 to be within the range of 2-2.1%, compared to the deflationary rate of 0.6% in 2023. The forecast also predicts further growth in 2025, ranging from 3.2-4%. Moreover, according to the CBA forecast, inflation in the non- exportable goods, which is characterized by rigid prices, will decrease to 2.5% in 2024 (down from 4.8% in 2023), before increasing to 2.8-3.3% in 2025. According to the World Bank forecast, inflation in Armenia is expected to rise to the target of 4% in the medium term. According to the International Monetary Fund forecast, inflation in Armenia will be 3.3% by the end of 2024, reaching the target level of 4% in 2025.
