GDP growth in Armenia in 2025 expected to be in line with potential:  Central Bank Head

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia believes that in recent years, there has been a significant  increase in external demand, leading to an increase in the potential for generating GDP.  

According to our estimates, this averages around 5%>, said Martin Galstyan, the Chairman of the  Central Bank of Armenia, on November 6 budget hearings in the  parliamentary standing committee on financial -credit and budgetary  affairs.  Thus, according to Galstyan, the growth of Armenia's GDP  next year is expected to be around 5%, which aligns with its  potential. 

Note that earlier today, Minister of Finance Vahe Hovhannisyan stated  that the potential for generating Armenia's GDP has increased in  recent years, which is agreed upon by RA's international partners (in  May of this year, Hovhannisyan assured ArmInfo that the potential for  growth in Armenia's GDP generation had risen to 5.5-6% from the  previous 4-4.5%. This increase is attributed to structural reforms,  investments, and programs aimed at supporting the development of  various sectors as a result of the government's work over the past 2  years. - ed.).  In this regard, the Armenian economy is expected to  grow by 5.8% by the end of the year, falling short of the budgeted 7%  growth projected for this year. With a 3.5% GDP deflator and an  average inflation rate of 3.6%, next year's nominal GDP is projected  to reach 11 trillion 050.1 billion drams. Additionally, GDP growth is  forecasted  to reach  5.6% in 2025. , the head of the Armenian Ministry of  Finance emphasized today.

 Let us recall that in the September report published by the Central  Bank of Armenia, titled "Monetary Policy for the III quarter of  2024", the Central Bank of Armenia revised its forecast for GDP  growth in 2024 from the previous range of 6.8-6.1% to a new range of  6.5-5.8% (compared to 8.3% growth in 2023), depending on the level of  inflation. The absolute GDP value  in 2024 will increase to 10.2-10.1  trillion drams (up from 9.5 trillion drams in 2023). The forecast for  GDP growth in 2025 has also been revised from the previous range of  6.1-3.8% to a new 5.9-3.7%, reaching up to 11.2-10.9 trillion drams.   In the EBRD report "Regional Economic Prospects: Along the Adjustment  Path" published on September 26, the Bank maintained its forecast for  Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 at 6.2% and 4.8%, respectively,  still expecting a slowdown from the actual 8.3% in 2023. The Asian  Development Bank also published an updated forecast, increasing the  GDP growth rate from 5.7% to 6.0%. The June forecasts from the IMF  and the World Bank predict a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in  2024. In particular, the IMF expects Armenia's GDP growth to slow  down to 6% in 2024, while the World Bank expects it to slow down to  5.5% in 2024. According to S&P expectations, Armenia will have 6.2%  economic growth in 2024, while Fitch Ratings expects it to reach up  to 6%.