ArmInfo. According to the new forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation in Armenia is projected to be 1% in 2024 compared to the deflationary rate of 0.6%, and then increase to 3.9% in 2025, coming closer to the target of 4%.
This is noted in the IMF report "World Economic Outlook. Policy Pivot, Rising Threats". The IMF has maintained its GDP growth forecast for Armenia in 2024 at 6% (compared to 8.3% growth in 2023), but has revised its expectations for 2025, now predicting a more significant slowdown to 4.9% compared to the previously predicted 5.3% slowdown.
According to the IMF forecast for Armenia, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP is projected to increase to 4.2% in 2024 (up from 2.3% in 2023), with a slight further increase to 4.8% in 2025. This IMF report also provides a forecast for 2024-2025 of the above indicators for Armenia's neighboring countries and its partners in the EAEU. The inflation forecast is as follows: in Georgia, an increase is expected from 1.3% to 3% (from 0.4% in 2023); in Azerbaijan there will also be an increase from 4.6% to 5% (from 2.1% in 2023); in Iran, on the contrary, a decrease from 30% to 28% (from 32.2% in 2023); in Turkey there will also be a decrease from 43% to 24% (from 64.8% in 2023); in Russia the level will initially remain at 7.4% (as in 2023), then decrease to 4.8%; in Belarus, after an increase to 6.4% (from 5.8% in 2023), there will be a slight decrease to 6.3%; in Kazakhstan, a decrease is expected from 8% to 6.6% (from 9.8% in 2023); and in Kyrgyzstan, after a decrease to 5% (from 7.3% in 2023), there will be no changes.
In terms of GDP growth in the fore-mentioned countries, the IMF forecast for 2024-2025 predicts a slowdown. In Georgia, there is expected to be an imperceptible acceleration of growth to 7.6% (from 7.5% in 2023) at first, followed by a slowdown to 6%. In Azerbaijan, growth is forecasted to accelerate to 3.2% (from 1.1% in 2023), followed by a slowdown to 2.5%. In Iran, growth will continue to slow down from 3.7% to 3.1% (from 5% in 2023). In Turkey, the growth rate will slow down from 3% to 2.7% (from 5.1% in 2023). In Russia, after maintaining the rate at 3.6% (as in 2023), a slowdown will follow to 1.3%. In Belarus, the growth rate will continue to slow down from 3.6% to 2.3% (from 3.9% in 2023). In Kazakhstan, there will be a slowdown to 3.5% (from 5.1% in 2023), followed by an acceleration to 4.6%. In Kyrgyzstan, growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5% (from 6.2% in 2023), followed by a slowdown to 5%.
According to the current account deficit/surplus to GDP ratio in these countries, the IMF predicts the following for 2024-2025: in Georgia, the deficit will continue to grow from 5.8% to 5.9% (up from 4.3% in 2023); in Azerbaijan, the surplus will decrease from 6.1% to 5.9% (down from 11.5% in 2023); in Iran, the surplus will slowly increase from 2.9% to 3% (up from 2.8% in 2023); in Turkey, the deficit will decrease from 2.2% to 2.1% (down from 4% in 2023); in Russia, the surplus will first increase to 2.7% (up from 2.5% in 2023) and then decrease to 2.6%; in Belarus, the deficit will continue to grow from 2% to 2.4% (up from 1.8% in 2023); in Kazakhstan, after decreasing to 1.5% (down from 3.3% in 2023), the deficit will increase to 2.7%; and in Kyrgyzstan, the significant deficit will continue to sharply decrease from 21.7% to 6.5% (down from 48.2% in 2023).
