What economic growth would Armenia record but for re-export

ArmInfo. How much would Armenia's economic growth have been if there were no two factors contributing to growth, namely, the export/re-export of goods and the increase in demand due to the influx of forcibly deported citizens of Artsakh? This question was asked by Artur Khachatryan, a member of the opposition Hayastan faction, to Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan  during the presentation of the budget execution for January-September  2024 at the NA meeting on financial, budgetary and credit issues on  January 13.

According to preliminary statistics, the growth of economic activity  (REA) in January-September 2024 slowed to 8.7% per annum (from 9.7%  in the same period of 2023). The growth was largely due to the trade  sector - with a slowdown in rates from 23.3% to 19.5%, the  construction sector - with a slowdown in annual rates from 17% to  15.9%, and the industrial sector - with an exit from a 0.6% decline  to 12.6% growth. Moreover, in September 2024, compared to September  2023, economic activity growth accelerated from last year's 5.6% to  the reported 7%, and in September alone it slowed to 6.6% from  August's 7.2% (against a slowdown in growth in September 2023 from  6.2% to 3.7%). Armenia's foreign trade turnover reached 9.4 trillion  drams ($23.7 billion), with an acceleration of the already high  annual growth rate to 73.5% (from 45.8% in the same period of 2023).  This is due to a more pronounced acceleration of high rates of annual  growth in exports - from 44.8% to 2.1 times, than imports - from  46.4% to 54.2%, the absolute value of which amounted to 4.2 trillion  and 5.2 trillion drams ($10.6 billion and $13.1 billion),  respectively.

,  - the head of the Ministry of Finance responded, adding that from the  obtained figure, they were unable to only the figure for  the trade sector.

At the same time, the minister refrained from answering the question  of to what extent the influx of forcibly deported citizens of Artsakh  affected demand.

In turn, the head of the State Revenue Committee Eduard Hakobyan  (formerly the Deputy Minister of Finance, in charge of  macroeconomics), noted that residents of Artsakh had previously  consumed Armenian goods, . , - he assured. Let us recall that at  the end of December 2024, the Ministry of Finance of Armenia once  again reduced its expectations for GDP growth in 2024 - from 5.8% to  5-5.5%. Meanwhile, in the approved budget, the indicator was set at  7%, and in September the forecast was revised to 5.8%.