Amundi expects 2-digit growth in almost all markets 

ArmInfo. In 2025, we will see a peculiar mix of uncertainty and decent growth in the financial markets. This forecast was made by Frederic Pascal, Co-Head of Delegated Investment Solutions at Amundi, while presenting Amundi's  asset allocation vision for 2025 at the Amundi Investment Outlook  conference. "We like risk, but we plan to add some diversity to our  portfolio," he said.

Amundi-Akba Fund Manager Anush Amirjanyan, in turn, notes that  hedging will play a key role this year.

According to Pascal, there are also opportunities for risky assets at  the moment. "We just need to remember that in terms of asset  allocation, we need dynamic allocation. In addition, dynamic asset  allocation should be positive in terms of risk, at least at the  beginning of the year. We are seeing a new level of interest rates on  fixed income, which opens up opportunities in the financial markets,"  he noted.                                                                                                                       

In any case, according to him, at the moment the market is ,  liquid, and the credit environment is favorable for companies.  Accordingly, in order to make the most of the opportunities provided,  one should be very cautious, but also proactive, since uncertainty,  inflation, as well as the implementation of tariff policy can also  affect these markets, the expert adds.                                                                                                                               

Investment sentiment in emerging markets

Emerging market stocks delivered positive returns in 2024. However,  according to Anush Amirjanyan, the recorded figures were slightly  lower than those recorded in developed countries, which was a  consequence of economic uncertainty, as well as the devaluation of  the dollar, which complicated monetary policy and debt servicing in  these countries. The decline in yields was also due to the high  yields of US Treasury bonds, which were attractive to investors and  led to an outflow of capital from emerging markets to developed  countries.

In this direction, according to her, Amundi gives preference mainly  to India and Latin American countries, and is cautious about Chinese  stocks.

At the same time, according to Amirjanyan, emerging market bonds can  be attractive to long-term investors. "Unlike developed markets, here  we prefer high-yield bonds and mainly debt obligations issued in  freely convertible currencies," she noted.  Armenian realities 

According to Anush Amirjanyan, in 2024, the cash and government bond  markets of the Republic of Armenia provided double-digit returns of  10.6% and 15.3%, respectively.

As for the currency, despite the fact that the US dollar has  strengthened against other world currencies (the dollar index has  grown by about 8% in 2024), the opposite picture is recorded in  Armenia: the dram has appreciated against the dollar by about 2.2%.

, she said. In this context,  according to the expert, the devaluation of the dram against the  dollar, observed in December 2024, will continue in 2025, while there  are risks in the opposite direction - revaluation of the dram or a  weaker devaluation, if economic activity is high or Russian migrants  decide to settle in the RA on a permanent basis, thereby contributing  to an increase in demand for the Armenian dram.

Interesting dynamics were observed in corporate bonds and shares.  Compared to 2018, in 2024 the volume of both bonds and shares listed  on the Armenia Stock Exchange increased by approximately 2-3 times.  The growth was facilitated by both favorable market conditions and  investments of pension funds. Thus, if until 2023 bonds were issued  only by companies in the financial sector, then in 2024, 2 large  issuers, Electric Networks of Armenia CJSC and Telecom Armenia OJSC  (trademark: Team Telecom Armenia), entered the capital market,  issuing bonds , in which pension funds managed  by Amundi-Acba also invested.

About expectations and plans

expects double-digit growth in almost all markets: the US,  UK, Europe and Japan. , - says Frederic Pascal.

, - adds  the manager of the funds "Amundi-Akba".

According to her, Amundi values investments in the real sector of the  economy, and in 2025 the company will focus its efforts both on  investments in private sector bonds and on creating investment  opportunities in large infrastructure projects.

In terms of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, money funds, gold  and inflation management strategies can become diversification  tools>, - concludes the manager of the Amundi-Akba funds.

Amundi-ACBA Asset Management CJSC was established in 2013. The  company manages three mandatory pension savings funds - Balanced,  Conservative and Stable Income. The company's shareholders are the  French Amundi (51%) - a leading European asset manager, which manages  assets worth more than 2 trillion euros as of the end of June 2024,  and Akba Bank (49%) - one of the largest commercial banks in Armenia. 

By the end of 2024, the number of participants in the three  Amundi-ACBA funds reached 510 thousand, the volume of managed assets  - 567 billion drams or about 1.4 billion euros (annual growth is  estimated at 30-40% on average). In 2024, the funds' yield was  8.1-10.3%, and the average annual yield since inception was about  7.2-7.8%.