In 2024, Armenia`s GDP grew by 5.9%, resulting in a per capita GDP of  $8.5 thousand

ArmInfo. In 2024, Armenia's GDP growth rate slowed down to 5.9% (from 8.3% in 2023 and 12.6% in  2022). The absolute value of Armenia's GDP in 2024 exceeded 10.127 trillion drams ($25.8 billion). The GDP deflator index also decreased to 101.1% in 2024,  down from 102.7% in 2023 and 108% in 2022). This is evidenced by data from the RA Statistical Committee published on February 20. 

In quarterly terms, Armenia's GDP,  experienced a 35.3% decline in  the first quarter of 2024, but then grew by 15.6% in the second  quarter, and accelerated to 25.6% in the third quarter. A slowdown  was noted in the fourth quarter - to 10.4%. Comparaaatively, in 2023,  the quarterly GDP dynamics were similar: a 36.3% decline in the first  quarter was followed by a 16.5% growth in the second quarter,  accelerating to 27% in the third quarter, and then slowing down in  the fourth quarter to 14.4%. GDP per capita in 2024 increased by  4.1%, reaching 3.338 million drams ($8.501 thousand or 7.857 thousand  euros), compared to 3.206 million drams ($8.168 thousand or 7.463  thousand euros) in the previous year. This growth in per capita GDP  is notable against the backdrop of an annual increase in the  population of Armenia by 84.6 thousand people, bringing the total to  3.076 million people. A similar trend was observed in 2023, when per  capita GDP grew by 12%  alongside an increase in the population by  53.7 thousand people (from 2.938 million to 2.991 million people -  according to updated data).

 However, we note that the population growth is recorded not so much  due to natural growth, but due to the citizens of Artsakh forcibly  displaced to Armenia after the tragic events of September 2023. Thus,  the absolute value of the natural population growth of Armenia in  2024 amounted to 8,072 thousand people (against 12,277 thousand  people in 2023), having decreased by 34.3% (against an increase of  26.8% in 2023). The drivers of GDP growth in 2024 were, to a greater  extent, the trade sector - 17%, the construction sector - 14.5% and  the services sector - 10.6%. To a lesser extent the energy complex -  6.5%, the industrial sector - 4.7% and the agricultural sector - 1.6%  contributed to the growth. For comparison, it should be noted that in  2023, only the agricultural sector was in decline - 0.3%, while other  sectors demonstrated higher growth: trade - 25.7%, construction -  14.8%, services - 10.3%, and the industrial sector - 4.1%. 

Against this background, the growth rate of Armenia's foreign trade  turnover slowed slightly from 46% to 41.5%, which came from an  imperceptible slowdown in the growth of both exports from 55.3% to  53.1% and imports from 40.2% to 33.8%. Moreover, the growth of  foreign trade was mainly supported by impressive volumes of export  and import of precious metals and stones ($8 billion and $7.4  billion, respectively, with an annual growth of 2.5-2.7 times).  With  the clarification of experts, referring to the small scale production  within the jewelry industry, we are talking about the re-export and  re-import of gold and diamonds. According to semi-annual customs  data, the majority of gold is imported from Russia (95.9%) and then  exported to the UAE (84.2%). The predominant volume of diamonds comes  from India (45.2%), Russia (21.4%) and Hong Kong (19.7%), also being  exported to the UAE (82.7%). 

It should be noted that the Central Bank's forecast of 6% closely  matched Armenia's actual GDP growth for 2024. The International  Monetary Fund also predicted a 6% growth for Armenia's GDP for 2024,  while the World Bank had a more modest figure of 5.5%. Moreover, both  the IMF and the World Bank anticipate a further slowdown in GDP  growth rates in 2025 to 4.9% and 5%, respectively. The Central Bank  predicts either an acceleration in GDP growth rates to 7.1% or a  slowdown to 4.8% for 2025, depending on the trajectory of inflation.