ArmInfo. The decision of US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on imported products will signify an era of fundamental changes in the global economic order. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Armen Nurbekyan expressed a similar opinion in an interview with Public Television.
Noting that this decision will affect all countries, he spoke about the possible impact on Armenia. He pointed out that this decision did not affect Russia (Armenia's main trading partner), as the Russian Federation is on the US sanctions list. Nurbekyan clarified: "In any case, the world will see a decrease in demand - for oil, copper, etc. And this, albeit indirectly, will negatively affect Russia. The general slowdown in the global economy will also have a negative impact our country." Nurbekyan also mentioned the US key rate as another aspect of the impact on the Armenian economy, as it is one of the main factors determining rates worldwide. "And now the uncertainty with US rates will inevitably introduce uncertainty into the pricing of rates in different countries," he noted.
In the context of bilateral relations between Armenia and the US, according to the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, the impact will be insignificant. He recalled that last year, exports from Armenia to the US totaled about $60 million (with the largest shipment being gold). "The basic duty of 10% applied to Armenia (according to Trump's decision) may actually have a positive effect. Higher duties have been introduced for competitors in gold exports to the US (for example, India). Therefore, in relative terms, our export price may decrease when compared to our competitor," he explained.
Summing up, the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank noted: "We are moving from fundamental globalization towards fundamental protectionism. However, we must wait and see of this is a signal for negotiations, or the end result. If this becomes a long-term trend, then it is important for investors, and participants in trade chains, to understand how to proceed. After all, up until now we have operated in a global world. No one will benefit from the threat of a trade war. The collapse of global trade norms is a likely consequence of countries' reactions to Trump's decision on tariffs. Today, the United States is the source of uncertainty. And let's not forget the lessons of history, which demonstrate that macro-problems are not easily solved with micro solutions."
