ArmInfo. The introduction of customs duties on goods from Armenia by US President Donald Trump will result in higher prices for Armenian products on the US market, but it will not have a significant impact on their sales in the country. Armen Ktoyan, an expert at the National Center for Public Policy Research and head of the Department of Statistics at ASUE, shared this viewpoint in an interview with ArmInfo.
Recall that on April 2, Trump announced the introduction of significant mutual tariffs to address the US trade deficit. A basic (minimum) duty of 10% has been set for Armenia, as well as for Georgia, Azerbaijan and several other countries. The EU will face tariffs of 20%, China - 34%, Vietnam - 46%, Japan - 24%, and Great Britain - 10%.
According to Ktoyan, Armenia has a fairly significant negative trade balance with the United States. The foreign trade turnover between the two countries in 2024 was almost $410.6 million, showing a decline of 38.7% compared to 2023: Armenian exports to the United States were about $58.9 million (an increase of 21.5%), while imports from the US to Armenia were over $351.6 million (a decline of 43.4%). The main imported items, the expert noted, are cars, and the goods exported are mainly consumed by our compatriots. For example, an American Armenian may not want to give up Armenian cognac there, thus creating a demand for it. In this regard, the increase in price due to the tariff policy of the US authorities will not affect his preferences (about 15% of Armenian exports to the US are alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages). What tariffs can impact is the export of agricultural products, such as canned vegetables and dairy products. As for the export of Armenian diamonds and gold to the US (about 20% of exports), according to the economist, this segment is very specific and the 10% customs duty is unlikely to affect the demands of its consumers.
Considering that the US tariff policy has impacted many importers, and mainly to a greater extent, and this is causing inflationary pressure in America's domestic economy, then this compensates for the increase in import duties for imported goods, the economist believes. On the other hand, Armen Ktoyan believes there are more important issues in Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the United States than the introduction of a 10% customs duty. For instance, Armenia is currently struggling to enter the American market and promote its products there. Studies show that only the 10-15% of Armenia's export potential in utilized in the USA. Armenian products are not well-known or competitive in the US market. And if the 10% duty does not result in significant structural changes in the already existing product range, then it will make it even more challenging for new products from Armenia to enter the American market.
Thus, the expert is convinced that it is more important for Armenia to consider entering the US and EU markets with its products. , he noted. Since becoming a member of the EAEU, the customs duty on Armenian goods in European markets has increased by 2.5-3 times. Currently, the average weighted customs duty on Armenian products in the EU is 8-10%, compared to the previous 2.7%, Ktoyan recalled. For the US, a large-scale tariff policy in the short term will result in higher prices, and very unpredictable structural changes in the economy are possible, the economist believes. This could also led to a slowdown in the growth rate of the population's well-being.
At the same time, this is unlikely to lead to an improvement in the US trade balance. , he said. right to print money and cover the trade deficit. And Trump actions can lead to a weakening of the dollar's position, potentially leading to larger-scale problems in the future," Armen Ktoyan concluded.
