Suren Parsyan calls the downwardly revised forecast of the World Bank  and IMF for Armenia`s GDP growth

ArmInfo. The downwardly revised forecast of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Armenia's GDP growth at 4-4.5% is quite optimistic. Economist Suren Parsyan shared this opinion in an interview with ArmInfo.

According to the expert, the update, regarding the deterioration of  forecasts for global GDP growth, by international financial  organizations is currently partly due to international trends.  Specifically, the declared by US President Donald Trump,  as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war and conflicts in the Middle East  have introduced additional uncertainty and risks to the global  economy. Since the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as the  possible aggravation of the situation in the Iranian direction,  cannot but affect Armenia, the World Bank has revised its forecast  for Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from the previous 5% to an updated  4% (from the actual 5.9% in 2024). The IMF has also  updated its  forecast from the previous 4.9% to 4.5%, given that the RA state  budget includes an indicator of 5.1%.  Additionally, Parsyan pointed  out, it should be considered that the favorable external factors  resulting from anti-Russian sanctions which caused an economic "boom"  in Armenia in the turbulent year of 2022 (12.6% GDP growth) are  gradually losing their impact. Thus, in 2023, the republic's GDP  growth began to slow down to 8.3%, and in 2024 - to 5.9% in 2024,  despite the fact that the Armenian Cabinet was targeting an annual 7%  growth.

Thus, if Armenia re-exported Russian gold last year, then this year  the has stopped: in January-March,  foreign trade turnover recorded a decline of 54.2%, while industrial  production decreased by 18.5%. The growth was weakened by the public  catering, hotel business and entertainment segments. At the same  time, the economist notes that negative expectations for the Armenian  economy are not related to the possibility of the West lifting  sanctions against Moscow, and Armenia will stop receiving benefits as  a country that bypassed the sanctions. According to Parsyan, it is  unlikely that the sanctions will be lifted in the near future and in  full. However, it is already obvious that Armenia has failed to  become a for Russian relocators.

he notes.Thus, the expert noted, we  must keep in mind that in modern conditions, the Armenian economy has  a higher degree of uncertainty than the . This is  why the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have revised  their economic growth forecasts. At the same time, he is convinced  that the forecast of 4-4.5% is quite optimistic in the current  realities.

Suren Parsyan concluded.