ArmInfo. The downwardly revised forecast of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Armenia's GDP growth at 4-4.5% is quite optimistic. Economist Suren Parsyan shared this opinion in an interview with ArmInfo.
According to the expert, the update, regarding the deterioration of forecasts for global GDP growth, by international financial organizations is currently partly due to international trends. Specifically, the declared by US President Donald Trump, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war and conflicts in the Middle East have introduced additional uncertainty and risks to the global economy. Since the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as the possible aggravation of the situation in the Iranian direction, cannot but affect Armenia, the World Bank has revised its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from the previous 5% to an updated 4% (from the actual 5.9% in 2024). The IMF has also updated its forecast from the previous 4.9% to 4.5%, given that the RA state budget includes an indicator of 5.1%. Additionally, Parsyan pointed out, it should be considered that the favorable external factors resulting from anti-Russian sanctions which caused an economic "boom" in Armenia in the turbulent year of 2022 (12.6% GDP growth) are gradually losing their impact. Thus, in 2023, the republic's GDP growth began to slow down to 8.3%, and in 2024 - to 5.9% in 2024, despite the fact that the Armenian Cabinet was targeting an annual 7% growth.
Thus, if Armenia re-exported Russian gold last year, then this year the has stopped: in January-March, foreign trade turnover recorded a decline of 54.2%, while industrial production decreased by 18.5%. The growth was weakened by the public catering, hotel business and entertainment segments. At the same time, the economist notes that negative expectations for the Armenian economy are not related to the possibility of the West lifting sanctions against Moscow, and Armenia will stop receiving benefits as a country that bypassed the sanctions. According to Parsyan, it is unlikely that the sanctions will be lifted in the near future and in full. However, it is already obvious that Armenia has failed to become a for Russian relocators.
he notes.Thus, the expert noted, we must keep in mind that in modern conditions, the Armenian economy has a higher degree of uncertainty than the . This is why the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have revised their economic growth forecasts. At the same time, he is convinced that the forecast of 4-4.5% is quite optimistic in the current realities.
Suren Parsyan concluded.
