Expert: Obsession with short-term indicators to strip Armenia of  economic sovereignty

ArmInfo. The obsession of state policy with short-term indicators can lead to the loss of economic sovereignty for the country. Vahe Davtyan, a Doctor of Political Sciences and Professor, expressed this viewpoint on his Facebook page  referring to data published by the Statistical Committee of Armenia for the first quarter of 2025,  which  showed a 5.2% increase in the country's gross domestic product (GDP). 

Davtyan pointed out that without a strategic focus on  developing the processing industry and creating a technological base, GDP growth will merely be an instrument of arithmetic manipulation, lacking real development. As a result, he believes that economy's structural deformation will worsen, leading to heavy reliance on services and imports.  "Although a 5.2% increase in GDP may appear a positive trend, there are serious structural issues lurking behind these macroeconomic indicators," the expert explained.  Particularly, as the political scientist noted, one of the key sectors of the economy,  the processing industry, experienced a decline of 21.1%, while the country's "economic locomotive,"the mining industry, declined by 10.5%. "This is a very alarming situation, as the manufacturing sector  serves as a foundation of not only for production, but also for exports and technological development," the expert added.

He emphasized that the main driver of growth continues to be the services sector, particularly information technology and  telecommunications (+16.2%), as well as trade (+5.6%). However,  Davtyan clarified that these areas offer short-term gains and do not create a  material base. "We must also consider the continuously artificially inflated construction bubble, which expanded by 14% in the first quarter of this year. As a result, we have an extremely vulnerable economic system. While the economy is growing, the lack of reinforcement in the industrial base worsens foreign trade inequality  and increases external dependence," the political scientist noted.

The expert emphasized that in the current conditions, the  government's neglect of the manufacturing sector is unacceptable. In this regard, he pointed out the need for political will for a radical shift. As Davtyan explained, it is necessary to adopt a national production strategy, target the mobilization of investment resources and launch a program to restore industry. All of this, in turn, depends on political determination; otherwise, economic security will  only be a matter of empty promises," the expert concluded.