ArmInfo.The LUYS Foundation, having analyzed the socio-economic development of the RA economy in January-April 2025, warns that the low growth rates of the Armenian economy will persist.
In particular, the Foundation's experts note that during the reporting period, the growth rates of economic activity in the RA, although somewhat accelerated, remain low.
, - the economists emphasize.
According to their observations, there are no trends towards the restoration of export indicators. Since the beginning of the year, both export and import indicators have significantly decreased. The main factor behind the decline is the decline in gold re-export volumes last year, but for other commodity groups there are also no factors that would significantly contribute to export growth, resulting in overall growth rates remaining low.
The growth rate of loans continues to cause concern among the Fund's experts. Mortgage and consumer loans, especially to the population, are growing at a high rate, significantly exceeding the growth rate of both economic activity and wages and foreign transfers. "A significantly high growth of liabilities relative to the population's income may pose risks for the financial system in the future," the Luys Fund believes.
In Armenia, economic activity growth in January-April 2025 slowed significantly to 4.4% per annum (from 13.2% in the same period of 2024). According to statistics, such a pronounced slowdown in economic activity growth in January-April 2025 was largely due to the deterioration in the annual dynamics of the industrial sector from 26.8% growth to 16.1% decline and a strong slowdown in the growth of the trade sector from 26.7% to 5.2%. At the same time, the service sector managed to accelerate in annual growth from 3.9% to 9.9%, which was also noted in the construction sector - from 13.7% to 15%. The energy complex was somewhat activated, its growth accelerated from a stagnant 0.4% to 2.6%. Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-April 2025 amounted to 2.5 trillion drams ($6.3 billion), down 52.9% year-on-year (versus a 2.4-fold increase a year ago). This is due to a significant decline in both exports and imports - by 60.3% and 46.5% year-on-year, respectively, while last year both indicators demonstrated significant growth - 2.8 times (exports) and 2.1 times (imports). As a result, the absolute value of exports for January-April 2025 amounted to 953.7 billion drams ($2.4 billion), and imports - 1.5 trillion drams ($3.9 billion).
