ArmInfo. By the end of the year, it will be possible to ensure economic growth above the budget figure. This assessment was voiced by the Minister of Economy of Armenia Gevorg Papoyan in an interview with the Public Television of Armenia.
Answering the question about how it is possible to have high economic growth in conditions when export volumes are declining, the Minister noted that the current situation is due to the lack of re-export, which took place last year. In particular, the head of the Ministry of Economy recalled that last year a significant amount of gold bars arrived in Armenia from Russia, which were re-exported to the UAE.
As a result of this operation, only a few jobs were created, and the amount of taxes paid was practically zero, which did not bring a noticeable economic effect. Nevertheless, the export figures were impressive, while this year they have decreased by about 50%. That is, according to the minister, re-export did not affect the Armenian economy either positively or negatively, as evidenced by the 6.3% growth in Armenia's economic activity in the first half of the year.
"And, therefore, when we talk about the real economy, it should be noted that in May we registered a double-digit growth rate, in June - 8%. That is, we are operating within the limits of high economic activity. The economy is developing, and I am confident that we will be able to ensure economic growth higher than budgeted by the end of the year. It should also be noted that the year is going quite well in an economic sense.
The rest is just scenes of jealousy, pessimistic views on what is happening>, - Papoyan noted, noting that there are many in Armenia who want to see and present everything in a bad light.
The draft budget for 2025 provides for a 5.1% growth in Armenia's GDP. However, in the context of the Iran-Israel conflict and its degree of escalation and duration, the RA Ministry of Finance does not rule out, under the most negative scenario, a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth to 1.3% in 2025.
According to the forecast updated in April of this year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth to 4.5% and 4%, respectively, is expected in 2025, with the WB expecting an acceleration in 2026 to 4.2%. According to the April forecast update, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 to be 5%, with a slowdown in 2026 to 4.7%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) predicts almost the same slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 - to 4.7%, and in 2026-2027 the rates will fluctuate in the range of 4-5%. According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, Armenia's GDP in 2024 slowed down in growth to 5.9% (from 8.3% in 2024 and 12.6% in 2023), exceeding 10.193 trillion drams ($26 billion).
According to statistics, the volume of exports in the first half of 2025 amounted to $3.8 billion, with a reversal of the annual dynamics from a 2.3-fold growth towards a 52.8% decline, and the volume of imports amounted to $5.9 billion, also with a deterioration in the annual dynamics from 86.5% growth to a 38.6% decline. As a result, the volume of foreign trade turnover fell by 45% year-on-year (versus a two- fold increase a year ago), amounting to $9.7 billion in the first half of 2025.
