Share of Armenia`s TOP-5 trade partners 65% of trade turnover 

ArmInfo. The TOP-5 countries in foreign trade with Armenia are Russia, China, the UAE, Iran and Germany, with a total volume for January-July 2025 of $7.4 billion  (65% of the total turnover). Of these, four have reduced their  volumes year-on-year: Russia by 52.1%, China by 12.5%, the UAE by  67.9%, Germany by 4.2%, despite the fact that a year ago the Russian  Federation, the UAE and China demonstrated significant growth, while  Germany was then in a more pronounced decline.  At the same time,  Iran managed to improve the annual dynamics, exiting a 2% decline by  6.3% growth.  Judging by the data of the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, a significant drop in the volume of foreign  trade between the Russian Federation and the UAE with Armenia is due  to the elimination of the factor of re-export and re-import of  diamonds and gold. 

In total, Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU fell by 51% in  January-July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 (against a  2.3-fold increase a year ago) to $4.1 billion, and with the EU it  grew by 9.6% (from a 21.4% decline a year ago) to $1.4 billion.  Moreover, among the EAEU countries, a significant drop in volumes was  recorded for the Russian Federation, while half of the EU countries  preferred to increase volumes - these are the Netherlands, France,  Romania, Austria, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, Italy, Poland, Hungary,  Sweden. Such a change in annual dynamics reduced the share of the  EAEU in the structure of Armenia's foreign trade from 43.1% to 36.4%  (due to the Russian Federation - from 42.3% to 34.9%), and the share  of the EU, on the contrary, increased from 6.5% to 12.2%.

The leading five trading partners of Armenia - Russia, China, the  UAE, Iran and Germany - provided the volume of foreign trade for  January-July 2025 at the level of $3.98 billion, $1.4 billion, $1.3  billion, $413.3 million and $260.1 million, respectively. In  particular, in the direction of Russia, the dynamics of imports  worsened from a growth of several times to a significant 63.9%  decline (to $2.4 billion), while exports lingered in decline, slowing  down from 22.4% to 5.6% (to $1.6 billion). In the direction of China,  the deterioration of the export dynamics from a growth by several  times to a 53.4% decline was accompanied by the exit of the import  dynamics from a 5.8% decline to a 24.2% growth, the values of which  amounted to $362.3 million and $1.1 billion, respectively. In the  direction of the UAE, the deterioration of the export dynamics from a  growth by several times to a 68.7% decline was accompanied by an  acceleration of import growth from 4.6% to 34.3%, the values of which  amounted to $1.2 billion and $44.2 million, respectively.  In the  direction of Iran, in parallel with the exit of the import dynamics  from a decline to a 10.1% growth, a deterioration in the export trend  was observed from 4.6% growth to a 13.2% decline, the values of which  amounted to $358.5 million and $54.8 million, respectively. In the  direction of Germany, the exit of exports from a double-digit decline  to a significant 79.4% growth was accompanied by a slowdown in the  decline imports from 30.7% to 16.3%, the values of which amounted to  $61.8 million and $198.4 million, respectively.

In terms of exports, the TOP-5 includes Russia, the UAE, China, Iraq  ($203.3 million, with an increase of 88.1%) and Georgia ($91 million,  with an increase of 0.9%), and in terms of imports, the leading five  are Russia, China, Iran, Italy ($218 million, with an increase of  6.2%) and Germany.

Of these destinations, it was Russia and the UAE that were  distinguished in the previous two years by significant volumes of  exports and imports through Armenia through transit operations with  gold and diamonds. According to customs data for 2024, the lion's  share of diamond and gold imports came from Russia - 73% and 99.4%,  respectively, and the dominant export of these precious metals and  stones came from the UAE (74.8% diamonds and 70.2% gold). Almost the  same picture emerged at the end of 2023, but then 46.7% of diamonds  and 99.2% of gold came from Russia, which were also mainly exported  to the UAE (84.6% diamonds and 71.4% gold). However, the current  sectoral breakdown of Armenia's foreign trade (statistics for  January-July 2025) already shows a significant decrease in the share  of precious metals and stones to 18.1% of imports and 33.2% of  exports (from 52% and 69%, respectively, a year ago).

The reason is that since 2025, it has become impossible to conduct  such transactions in the previous volume due to the settlement of the  issue of customs duties on jewelry within the EAEU, and the zeroing  of duties on the import of jewelry from the UAE by Russia.

In total, Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-July 2025  amounted to $11.4 billion, having decreased by 42% year-on-year  (against 95% growth a year ago). In particular, the deterioration in  the dynamics was noted for both exports and imports - to a 49.6-35.8%  decline (from a 2.2-fold and 79.1% growth a year ago), the volumes of  which dropped to $4.4 billion and $6.99 billion, respectively.  Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-July 2025  increased by 24% year-on-year - to $2.6 billion, of which the  negative $743.1 million and $701 million are the balance with the  EAEU and EU countries, with a significant decline in the former and  an insignificant increase in the latter. A considerable negative  balance is also recorded this time in foreign trade with China -  $712.4 million (with an annual growth of 8 times), and among the EAEU  countries, the Russian Federation has a significant negative balance  - $798.3 million (with an annual decline of 6 times). A reduction by  several times is also recorded in the positive balance of foreign  trade with the UAE - to $1.2 billion.

It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia and the IMF  predict a decline in both exports and imports for 2025, but the rates  they predict are very different. Thus, according to the Central  Bank's expectations (June forecast), after almost equal growth of  exports and imports in 2024 by 35.6-31.4%, in 2025 exports will  decrease by 32.3-36.4% and imports by 29-34.2%, with growth in 2026  of both exports by 5.4-5% and imports by 4.7-3.1%. In its April  forecast for 2025, the IMF predicted a much more modest decline in  Armenia's foreign trade: exports by 10.4% and imports by 5.4%. The WB  has not yet updated its forecast for Armenia's foreign trade in 2025,  but in early November it already predicted a strong slowdown in  growth of both exports to 5.6% and imports to 7%.