ArmInfo. In recent days, government officials have continued to tout the prospect of opening the borders with Turkey, portraying it as a significant economic opportunity. However, a deeper analysis shows that the situation is not so simple and rosy. Economist, PhD in Economics, and former head of the RA State Revenue Committee, David Ananyan, wrote in his Facebook post.
"First and foremost, the transportation infrastructure. The roads and railways from our border to Turkey's main logistics hubs are either nonexistent or in poor condition. Turkey needs significant investments to make this infrastructure suitable for international transport. Even with the necessary political will, this process will not be quick," he noted. Additionally, the expert pointed out that even if the Margara or Akhurik checkpoints were opened, and a good transport system was implemented along with the Turkish road network, allowing Armenia to access the major Mediterranean ports of Mersin and Derzey, given their remoteness (850 and 950 km, respectively), the cost of transporting goods and cargo would not decrease. On the contrary, it would increase due to the long distances and intermediate costs.
"Secondly, there is the issue of economic balance. Turkey's economy is significantly larger than Armenia's, and our economy is known for its weak stability. One of the most apparent outcomes of opening the borders will be the intensive penetration of Turkish goods into the Armenian market. Our industrial sectors, which already struggle to compete, are unlikely to withstand such pressure," the economist believes.
And thirdly, there are restrictions in customs policy. Armenia, as a member of the EAEU, is deprived of the opportunity to pursue an independent customs and tariff protection policy. In the EAEU, decisions related to customs policy are made based on a unified approach and consensus, so even if we want to protect local production through tariffs or restrictions, this is practically impossible from an economic perspective, Ananyan mentioned. "All of this means that opening borders may have a certain political and psychological significance, but economically, it doesn't offer a wide range of opportunities. Instead, it carries the risks of vulnerability and dependence. If there is no serious strategic calculation beyond the symbolic impulse of peace, then talk of 'major economic benefits' is simply detached from reality," David Ananyan concluded.
