ArmInfo. The transit of Kazakh grain to Armenia through Azerbaijan is an attempt to replace a lost reality with an artificial opportunity: Armenia is being offered an alternative that can result in its significant dependence on regional centers.
According to an analytical report provided to ArmInfo, prepared by the political initiative of former Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan, "Wings of Unity," the opening of roads will only be beneficial if there is mutual trust between the countries. In particular, as the initiative emphasized, when it comes to the supply of strategic goods, particularly grain, it is not only a matter of economic convenience but also the risk of political control, vulnerability to security, and sovereignty. "From an economic perspective, this route can be seen as diversification by reducing excessive dependence on the Russian route. Annual grain demand in Armenia is estimated at approximately 500,000-600,000 tons, of which wheat accounts for approximately 400,000. Until now, this volume has been almost entirely delivered from Russia via Upper Lars or Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, according to international market indicators, Kazakh wheat is currently relatively cheaper than Russian wheat, averaging $20-25 per ton, which could somewhat mitigate the rise in flour and bread prices," the initiative noted.
However, as the article emphasizes, this difference in figures will only become real if tariffs for crossing the Caspian Sea, the port of Alat, and the Azerbaijani railway do not become a "political instrument" of pressure. "A new import route for Armenia will also create a new cycle of political dependence. Specifically, supplying grain through hostile territory will give Azerbaijan real leverage over Armenia's food market at any time. This risk is not theoretical, as evidenced by the Lachin Corridor, which demonstrated that a transport restriction can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis," "Wings of Unity" noted.
The initiative also mentioned that, until 2020, Artsakh supplied approximately 20-30% of the combined wheat needs of Armenia and the NKR. "In 2019, Artsakh produced approximately 120,000 tons of grain, with a cultivated area of approximately 35,000 hectares. For Armenia, this was a pillar of food security, as well as land resources that reduced reliance on imports. Meanwhile, today, the country praises the decision of a country that not only closed the Lachin corridor but also occupied and ethnically cleansed the territories that guaranteed Armenia's food self-sufficiency," "Wings of Unity" emphasized.
In this regard, the new grain import route must be considered within the framework of state sovereignty and security. "The economy can calculate the numbers, while political rationality, in turn, can allow us to see the risks hidden behind them. Today, the Armenian authorities are welcoming what still needs to be analyzed. Artsakh was a true guarantee of Armenia's food security. And the grain from Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan only reminds us of the high price we are paying for our losses," the initiative concluded.
