"Wings of Unity": Grain transit through Azerbaijan will lead to  Armenia`s dependence on regional centers

ArmInfo.  The transit of Kazakh grain to Armenia through Azerbaijan is an attempt to replace a lost reality with an artificial opportunity: Armenia is being offered  an alternative that can result in its significant dependence on  regional centers.

According to an analytical report provided to ArmInfo, prepared by  the political initiative of former Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan,  "Wings of Unity," the opening of roads will only be beneficial if  there is mutual trust between the countries. In particular, as the  initiative emphasized, when it comes to the supply of strategic  goods, particularly grain, it is not only a matter of economic  convenience but also the risk of political control, vulnerability to  security, and sovereignty. "From an economic perspective, this route  can be seen as diversification by reducing excessive dependence on  the Russian route. Annual grain demand in Armenia is estimated at  approximately 500,000-600,000 tons, of which wheat accounts for  approximately 400,000. Until now, this volume has been almost  entirely delivered from Russia via Upper Lars or Black Sea ports.  Meanwhile, according to international market indicators, Kazakh wheat  is currently relatively cheaper than Russian wheat, averaging $20-25  per ton, which could somewhat mitigate the rise in flour and bread  prices," the initiative noted.

However, as the article emphasizes, this difference in figures will  only become real if tariffs for crossing the Caspian Sea, the port of  Alat, and the Azerbaijani railway do not become a "political  instrument" of pressure. "A new import route for Armenia will also  create a new cycle of political dependence.  Specifically, supplying  grain through hostile territory will give Azerbaijan real leverage  over Armenia's food market at any time. This risk is not theoretical,  as evidenced by the Lachin Corridor, which demonstrated that a  transport restriction can quickly escalate into a humanitarian  crisis," "Wings of Unity" noted.

The initiative also mentioned that, until 2020, Artsakh supplied  approximately 20-30% of the combined wheat needs of Armenia and the  NKR. "In 2019, Artsakh produced approximately 120,000 tons of grain,  with a cultivated area of approximately 35,000 hectares. For Armenia,  this was a pillar of food security, as well as land resources that  reduced reliance on imports. Meanwhile, today, the country praises  the decision of a country that not only closed the Lachin corridor  but also occupied and ethnically cleansed the territories that  guaranteed Armenia's food self-sufficiency," "Wings of Unity"  emphasized.

In this regard, the new grain import route must be considered within  the framework of state sovereignty and security. "The economy can  calculate the numbers, while political rationality, in turn, can  allow us to see the risks hidden behind them. Today, the Armenian  authorities are welcoming what still needs to be analyzed. Artsakh  was a true guarantee of Armenia's food security. And the grain from  Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan only reminds us of the high price we  are paying for our losses," the initiative concluded.