Thursday, December 25 2025 15:15
Karina Melikyan

Exponential growth in economic activity in Armenia on New Year eve 

Exponential growth in economic activity in Armenia on New Year eve 

ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity began to accelerate ahead of the New Year holidays, growing to 8.3% for the first 11 months of 2025 (from 7.4% in the same period  a year ago). Meanwhile, foreign trade continued to decline at a  double-digit rate, compared to significant growth a year earlier.  According to preliminary data from the RA Statistics Committee, the  industrial sector, which was one of the drivers of economic growth a  year ago, is now stagnating.

According to statistics, this economic activity in January-November  2025 was largely due to a significant increase in the construction  sector, from 14.9% to 20.1%, and an acceleration in annual growth in  the services sector, from 6.3% to 10.9%. A slowdown in annual growth  was observed in the energy sector, from 5.9% to 2.8%, and in the  trade sector, from 18% to 3%. The industrial sector's annual growth  rate deteriorated much more noticeably, with growth slowing from 7.6%  to a stagnant 0.5%. The statistical report for this period does not  include data on the agricultural sector.

According to statistical data for January-November 2025, the trade  sector holds the lead in absolute value with a volume of 5.97  trillion drams ($15.4 billion). The services sector ranks second with  3.7 trillion drams ($9.5 billion), and the industrial sector ranks  third with 2.8 trillion. drams ($7.3 billion), and fourth place, due  to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, is occupied by the  construction sector - 644.6 billion drams ($1.7 billion). The volume  of electricity generation in January-November 2025 amounted to  8,225.3 million kWh, of which 783.2 million kWh in November alone.

Moreover, in November 2025, compared to November 2024, economic  activity accelerated in growth more significantly - to 10.4% (from  1.2% a year earlier), and in November alone it lingered in decline,  with a slowdown in rates from 4% to 0.1% (almost the same as a year  ago in November 2024 - from a 4% decline to complete stagnation).  Moreover, in November 2025, the industrial sector maintained growth,  but with a slowdown in rates from 20.8% to 12.8%, whereas a year ago  in the same month there was a deterioration in dynamics from 10.9%  growth to a 0.5% decline. At the same time, in November, there was an  acceleration in growth in the construction sector - from 1.3% to  4.3%, and in the trade sector - from 2.2% to 5.9%. A deterioration in  growth dynamics during the reporting month was observed in the  services sector, which declined from 1.8% to 2.3%. The energy sector,  however, managed to recover from a 5.1% decline in November to 7.9%  growth.

On a year-over-year basis (November 2025 vs. November 2024), almost  all sectors demonstrated growth, except for the energy sector, which  declined by 8.9%. Notably, the industrial sector delivered  significantly higher growth, up 31.7%, followed closely by  construction (17.2%) and services (11.2%), while the trade sector  showed only 1.5% growth. A year earlier, in November 2024 compared to  November 2023, only the industrial sector recorded a decline (by  19%), while other industries showed double-digit growth: the energy  complex - 17.3%, construction - 11.6%, trade - 11.5% and the service  sector - 10.4%.

Against this backdrop, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-November 2025 amounted to 7.3 trillion drams ($18.9 billion),  a decline of 33.2% year-on-year (versus 54% growth a year ago). This  was due to a significant decline in both exports and imports-by 40.6%  and 27.4% year-on-year, respectively, while last year both indicators  demonstrated significant growth-by 73.9% (exports) and 41.5%  (imports). 

As a result, the absolute value of exports for January-November 2025  amounted to 2.8 trillion drams ($7.3 billion), and imports-4.5  trillion drams ($11.6 billion). However, in November 2025, compared  to November 2024, foreign trade turnover grew by 15.3%, driven by  both export growth of 17.3% and import growth of 14%. A year earlier,  in November 2024, compared to November 2023, foreign trade turnover  declined by 27.4%, driven by a 35% decline in exports and a 21.4%  decline in imports.

Starting in 2023, the methodology for calculating electricity  generation volumes in statistical reports has changed; in particular,  the volume of electricity generated by independent generators has now  been included. For the agricultural sector, data is published only in  quarterly and annual statistical reports. (The average dram exchange  rate in January-November 2025 was 387.51 drams per US dollar.)