ArmInfo. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts 5.3% GDP growth for Armenia in 2026  (compared to 7.2% in 2025), with an acceleration to 5.5% in 2027, as noted in the IMF's April report, "World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War."

ArmInfo.  The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts GDP growth for Armenia of 5.5% in 2026 (compared to 7.2% in 2025), accelerating to 5.7% in 2027. According to the ADB forecast, inflation in Armenia will accelerate  to 3.8% in 2026 (from 3.3% in 2025) and then retreat to 3.2% in 2027,  as noted in the Asian Development Bank's April report "Asian  Development.  Outlook. The Middle East Conflict Challenges Resilience  in Asia and the Pacific".

ArmInfo. The World Bank (WB) has improved its GDP growth forecast for Armenia in 2026-2027 to  5.3-5.1% from the previous 4.9-4.7% (compared to an actual acceleration in growth in 2025 from 5.9% to 7.2% - Ed.), as stated in the WB's Europe & Central Asia Economic Update: Industrial Policy,  published on April 8.

ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a GDP growth of 7.1-4.7% in 2026 and then 5.7-5.3% in 2027, also expecting an improvement in foreign trade dynamics. As a result, the absolute value of GDP will increase to 12.6-12.2 trillion drams (in 2026 from an actual 11.3 trillion drams in 2025), with subsequent growth to 13.8-13.3 trillion drams in 2027, as noted in the Central Bank of Armenia's March report, "Monetary Policy for Q1 2026."

ArmInfo. A possible slowdown in economic growth in Armenia amid significant growth in the credit  market threatens to result in a significant increase in toxic assets, primarily risky loans, according to  ArmInfo analysts, who analyzed the performance of the banking system (Financial Ratings of Armenian Banks bulletin) for 2025. It is noted that in 2025, in the Armenian banking sector  the growth rate of corporate lending outpaced the  growth rate of retail lending - 24% compared to 21%, while in 2024 the picture was the opposite - 18% compared to 33%.

ArmInfo. Instead of establishing a dialogue with the environmental community to explain its mission, the gold mining company Lydian Armenia has apparently adopted the  principle of "its own inviolability" through legal protection. "From now on, the company will consistently defend its rights and the rights of thousands of stakeholders in the Amulsar project," as noted in the company's statement. 

ArmInfo.Armenia's GDP growth is expected to exceed the budgeted figure by the end of 2026, as stated by Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan during a press-  briefing  on February 26.  He attributed this belief to the  government's policies, the business community's response, and the  country's growth rate.

ArmInfo. S&P Global Ratings forecasts Armenia's real GDP to expand by 5.3% in 2026 and  to 4.8% in 2027, after which the rate will increase to 5% in 2028.  

ArmInfo.  Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, has upgraded Ardshinbank's rating outlook from Stable to Positive, affirming the Bank's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BB-‘ and Viability Rating (VR) at ‘bb-‘.

ArmInfo.  Armenia's GDP growth for 2025  is estimated to reach  5.5-6%, outperforming the 5.1% target originally set in the state budget, as stated by Armenian  Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan on January 21 at a press  conference presenting the ministry's performance outcomes for 2025.

ArmInfo.  Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Armenia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the  IDR at 'BB-'. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this  rating action commentary.

ArmInfo. The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Armenia's rating outlook from Stable to Positive, affirming it at BB-. Armenian Prime Minister  Nikol Pashinyan wrote this on his Facebook page.

ArmInfo. Armenian Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan states that Armenia has previously expressed disagreement with the international credit ratings assigned to the country. Now, after the signing of the Washington Declarations, financial authorities hope that the country's ratings will "return to natural levels." This was stated by RA Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan on September 24 at a panel discussion titled "Armenia's New Reality as an Economic Shock" as part of the forum "The Future of the Banking System: Innovations and Development Prospects."

ArmInfo. The peace framework agreement between Armenia (BB-/Stable) and Azerbaijan (BBB-/Stable) is a positive step towards a comprehensive deal and reduces the risk  of renewed hostilities, although obstacles remain, Fitch Ratings  says. Achieving a peace agreement is unlikely to immediately affect  either country's ratings, but could support positive medium-term  credit trends, notably via expanded trade that may boost growth,  although this is difficult to quantify.  

ArmInfo. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at <BB-> with a <Stable> outlook, as noted in the Fitch Ratings statement. It also includes an updated forecast for Armenia's GDP growth, projecting a slowdown to 4.8% in 2025 (down from an estimated  6% in 2024 and an actual  8.3% in 2023).

ArmInfo.Armenia's GDP for the first 9 months of 2024 exceeded 6.9 trillion drams or $17.7 billion, showing a 12.8% year-on-year increase. This growth rate is similar to  the previous year, when a slowdown from 21% to 12% was observed. This  is evidenced by the data from the RA Statistical Committee, released  on November 20, presenting the GDP at market prices.  The GDP  dynamics for the year showed a negative trend only in the first  quarter with a decline of 36.1%.  This was followed by a positive  growth of 16.1% in the second quarter and a further acceleration to  25.6% in the third quarter. This pattern mirrored the quarterly  dynamics of 2023, where a 36.3% decline in the first quarter was  followed by a growth of 16.5% in the second quarter and a further  acceleration to 27.2% in the third quarter. 

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia believes that in recent years, there has been a significant  increase in external demand, leading to an increase in the potential for generating GDP.  

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia has worsened its GDP growth forecast for 2024  lowering it  from the previous range of 6.8-6.1% to a new range of 6.5-5.8%  (compared to 8.3% growth in 2023), depending on the formation of high  or low inflation.

ArmInfo. In 2024, Armenia's economic growth may exceed 8.5%, depending on the trends observed  during the second half of this year. Doctor of Economics, professor, and head of the Research Center "Alternative," Tatul Manaseryan, who is also a member of the Eurasian Expert Club, made this statement  during a press conference on August 28, while presenting the Club's assessment.

ArmInfo.The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review  under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with Armenia. The completion of the review enables access of SDR 18.4 million (about US$24.5 million), bringing total access to SDR 73.6 million (about US$97.7 million). The SBA was approved by the IMF's Board on December 12, 2022 (see Press Release No. 22/429). The Armenian authorities  continue to treat the arrangement as precautionary. The Executive Board's decision on the third review of the SBA was taken without a meeting.