Saturday, March 11 2017 09:53
Svetlana Hovsepyan

In March first decade AMD strengthened against USD and RUR, weakening towards EUR

In March first decade AMD strengthened against USD and RUR, weakening  towards EUR

ArmInfo. The currency  interbank of Armenia reduced volume from March 6 to 10 by 38%, after  a decline of 31% a week earlier. In parallel, on the intrabank  market, after the activity of the previous week, the current passive  phase included both USD and RUR transactions, as well as EUR  transactions.

Against this background, the exchange currency market,  after a week of silence, again made itself felt in a small volume. As  a result, the AMD for the reporting week strengthened to the USD from  487 to 486 AMD/USD1, to the RUR from 8.4 to 8.2 AMD/RUR1, tuned to  devaluation to the EUR from 513 to 515 AMD/EUR1. A year earlier, in  the first decade of March 2016, AMD depreciated against the USD from  491 to 493 AMD/USD1 and the RUR from 6.6 to 7 AMD/RUR1, maintaining  its position against the EUR at 540 AMD/EUR1, which, in comparison  with the current rates, indicates the annual strengthening of AMD  against USD and EUR, with devaluation to RUR. For the entire year of  2016, the exchange currency market gave signs of life occasionally  for one operation in March-May: $ 100 thousand in March, $ 2.950  million in April and $ 800thsd in May, followed by a lull. The  central bank bought USD in April in the foreign exchange market ($  2.4 million at the rate of 478.5 AMD/USD1), June ($ 50.2 million at  the rate of 476.72 AMD/USD1), August ($ 19.8 million at the rate of  474.25 AMD/USD1 ), September ($ 28.8 million at the rate of 474.11  AMD/USD1) and October ($ 50.8 million at the rate of 475.47  AMD/USD1), and sold in January ($ 53.1 million at the rate of 484.69  AMD/USD1), February ($ 41.5 Million at the rate of 492.59 AMD/USD1),  November ($ 13.1 million at the rate of 478.56 AMD/USD1) and December  ($ 15 million at the rate of 483.06 AMD/USD1).

As the Armenian Central Bank's press service told ArmInfo, during the  reporting week, deals were made at $ 800thsd on NASDAQ OMX Armenia  exchange market, having formed the average exchange rate at the level  of 486,90 AMD/USD1. At the Interbank currency exchange, from March 6  to 10, transactions were made in the amount of $ 5 million (weekly  decline by 38%) at the average rate of 486.27 AMD/USD1 (against the  previous 487.09). In parallel with this, on the intrabank market, the  weekly dynamics of USD, RUR and EUR transactions changed the vector  into a descending one. So, for the reporting week, the volume of  buying/selling USD changed the trend from 39.5-53% growth to a  28.7-39% decline, RUR - from 10.4-14.5% growth to 20, 7-14.8%  decline, against which the intensified buying of EUR sharply changed  the vector from 5.8% growth to a 2-fold decline in parallel with the  acceleration of the sales decline from 2.4% to 26.7%. As a result, $  61.9 million was purchased at the average exchange rate of 485.53  AMD/USD1, 7.4 million EUR at the average exchange rate of 511.66  AMD/EUR1 and 710.5 million RUR at the average rate of 8.26 AMD/RUR1,  and sold $ 70.5 million at average rate of 487.18 AMD/USD1, 8.8  million EUR at average rate of 515.94 AMD/EUR1 and 394.8 million RUR  at average rate of 8.36 AMD/RUR1.

According to the source, during the previous week (February 27 to  March 4), Armenian banks issued AMD 43.7 billion AMD and USD loans  for $ 88.2 million. In comparison with the previous period (February  20- 25), the trend for AMD loans deteriorated from 28, 4% growth to  18% decline, while the dynamics of USD loans improved, and sharply  from 12.9% decline in growth by 2.3 times.

To note, for the year 2015, in the retail foreign exchange market of  Armenia, AMD weakened against the USD from 477 to 482 AMD/USD1 on  average, while strengthening against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/EUR1  and against RUR from 8.2 to 6,9 AMD/RUR1. Moreover, from mid-December  almost every day the Central Bank conducted interventions. The  devaluation of AMD 2015 was observed in parallel with a slowdown in  GDP growth from 3.6% to 3%, a decrease in foreign trade turnover (by  20.6%), more significantly imports (by 26.5%) than exports (by 3,9%),  as well as the subsidence of the inflow of transfers to Armenia by  almost 24%, and this in the already low purchasing power of the  population. In 2016, in the retail foreign exchange market, AMD  depreciated against USD and RUR to 484 AMD/USD1 and 8 AMD/RUR1,  gaining to the EUR to 505 AMD/EUR1, which occurred under conditions  of almost stagnant slowdown in GDP growth by 0.2%, continuing, but at  a slower pace, subsidence of the net inflow of transfers (by 17.8%  yoy in January-December). In parallel to this, in 2016, there was an  improvement in the dynamics of foreign trade turnover from a decline  by 7.4% growth due to the export and import from the recession to a  20% and 1.6% growth respectively, as well as deflation in the  consumption by 1,4%.

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