Forecast: Regular sanctions against Moscow can reduce the volume of Russian trade and investment with the countries of the EAEU

ArmInfo. Another sanctions against Moscow can reduce the volume of Russian trade and investment with the EAEU countries, predicts the adviser to former US President George W. Bush in Russia and Eurasia, the former director of the Russian department in the Security Council of the United States, the global affairs researcher at the Jackson Institute of Yale University, the director of Kissinger Associates Thomas Graham.

On the night of January 30, the US Ministry of Finance published a "Kremlin list", which included almost all representatives of the Russian leadership and large Russian entrepreneurs - more than 200 people in all.  However, on January 30, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced the introduction of new anti- Russian sanctions in the near future. "We intend to use the Kremlin's list and intelligence to bring in additional sanctions," he said.

"Of course, it is difficult and premature to talk about specific figures and volumes, however, citizens of the EAEU countries and other countries will have to decide on their own willingness to take risks for the sake of doing business in Russia with persons already subject to or subject to future US sanctions already today I think that the decision on new sanctions against Russia will be taken in coordination with the European partners of the United States," he said.

According to the analyst, in supporting the sovereignty of the Central Asian countries, Washington seeks to see them more integrated into the world economy. And despite the desire of certain forces in Washington to tear off Central Asia from Russia, in general, the US does not make special efforts in this direction. In this light, much greater danger for Russian influence in the region, in Graham's view, represents China's activity.

"The EAEU is a de facto economic development program based on protectionism, while the Beijing's initiative One Belt - One Way, focuses on economic integration in the large Eurasian region .In this light, despite the talk about harmonizing these two policies, in my opinion, they still pursue diametrically opposite goals," says Graham.

According to him, the same Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are striving for a permanent American presence in Central Asia in order to gain more room for maneuver, the two neighboring great powers: Russia and China. Graham expressed his belief in maintaining the US presence in the region, if only because of their military operations in Afghanistan. "However, a significant increase in our activity in Central Asia is unlikely, the region is outside the list of priorities for US national security," the US analyst summed up.

According to the ECE, the GDP growth of the EAEU countries in Jan-Sep 2017, compared to the same period in 2016, reached 1.9%. The growth of industrial production in Jan-Oct reached 2.3%, agricultural production - 2.7%, freight turnover - 6.8%, passenger turnover - 7.1%, retail trade turnover - 1.2%. Trade in the EAEU increased by 26.9%, foreign trade - by 24.7%. The EAEU includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia.