Russian expert: The full recovery of the Armenian economy can be  judged only by the results of 2022

ArmInfo.  There is a need to  assess the scale of losses - whether from COVID-19 or from war in  Armenia. This was announced on January 29 during the video bridge  Moscow - Bishkek - Yerevan - Minsk - Nur-Sultan by head of the  post-Soviet research sector of the Institute of Economics of the  Russian Academy of Sciences, associate professor of the financial  university under the government of the Russian Federation Artem  Pylin.

In his words, the Armenian government has yet to do this work, and,  accordingly, after that, it will push the economic policy down. With  the declared volume of growth of the country's economy at 1.3% for  the current year, one cannot speak of a full recovery of the Armenian  economy. In this case, the country will reach the maximum level of  the fourth quarter of 2019. The expert believes that the full  recovery of the country's economy can only be judged by the results  of 2022, and only if the situation does not worsen. And so that this  does not happen, and the Armenian economy begins the recovery  process, there is a need to unblock transport communications, which  was stated in a trilateral statement by the leaders of Russia,  Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia, according to Pylin, having been in a transport blockade for  years, has received the opportunity to diversify communications, and,  thus, to provide land access to the Russian market through the  territory of Azerbaijan. Artem Pylin recalled that in order to  implement this project, a working group has been formed, which should  study all these issues, having presented its proposals in February.  The expert believes that Armenia should be interested in getting the  opportunity to export its goods to the Russian market, since the  current supply conditions no longer correspond to the increased  volumes of Armenian exports to the Russian Federation, which is about  $ 1.3 billion. He recalled that the share of Russia accounts for a  quarter of all Armenian exports, and a third of all imports. To  expand Armenia's export opportunities, it is necessary to resolve  issues related to the development of agriculture, transport  engineering, and, of course, to carry out more active cooperation in  the service sector. In order to diversify transport arteries, it is  also possible to consider possibilities for expanding the capacities  of Georgian ports. For these purposes, it is possible to attract  financial resources of the Eurasian Development Bank and the European  Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which specialize in  financing infrastructure projects, which in the near future will  become a good help for the emerging common energy market in the EAEU.

At the same time, the well-known Armenian economist Ashot Tavadyan,  agreeing with the importance of the formation of common oil, gas and  electricity markets, pointed out the need to exclude subjective  factors. According to him, Armenia is a small country for which the  EEU countries continue to be the main export market. According to the  economist, it is by no means possible to leave bottlenecks in this  issue. He pointed out the need for a coordinated energy tariff  policy, a coordinated monetary policy and the development of a  Marshall micro-plan for Armenia in order to equalize the economic  situation in the country with other states of the Union. As for  unblocking transport communications, then, as Ashot Tavadyan noted,  based on the behavior of opponents, this possibility should be  treated with a certain degree of skepticism. He recalled that  Azerbaijan blocked the Vardenis-Martakert highway. In addition, the  issue of the return of Armenian prisoners of war, many of whom Baku  has declared terrorists, has not been resolved.

Another Armenian economist Tatul Manaseryan agreed with Tavadyan's  opinion. He noted that the position of Baku and Ankara is more taken  into account in the issue of unblocking transport communications, and  if internal arteries (Vardenes-Martakert) are blocked, then it is  very difficult to talk about unblocking external communications.