ArmInfo. There is a need to assess the scale of losses - whether from COVID-19 or from war in Armenia. This was announced on January 29 during the video bridge Moscow - Bishkek - Yerevan - Minsk - Nur-Sultan by head of the post-Soviet research sector of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, associate professor of the financial university under the government of the Russian Federation Artem Pylin.
In his words, the Armenian government has yet to do this work, and, accordingly, after that, it will push the economic policy down. With the declared volume of growth of the country's economy at 1.3% for the current year, one cannot speak of a full recovery of the Armenian economy. In this case, the country will reach the maximum level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The expert believes that the full recovery of the country's economy can only be judged by the results of 2022, and only if the situation does not worsen. And so that this does not happen, and the Armenian economy begins the recovery process, there is a need to unblock transport communications, which was stated in a trilateral statement by the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Armenia, according to Pylin, having been in a transport blockade for years, has received the opportunity to diversify communications, and, thus, to provide land access to the Russian market through the territory of Azerbaijan. Artem Pylin recalled that in order to implement this project, a working group has been formed, which should study all these issues, having presented its proposals in February. The expert believes that Armenia should be interested in getting the opportunity to export its goods to the Russian market, since the current supply conditions no longer correspond to the increased volumes of Armenian exports to the Russian Federation, which is about $ 1.3 billion. He recalled that the share of Russia accounts for a quarter of all Armenian exports, and a third of all imports. To expand Armenia's export opportunities, it is necessary to resolve issues related to the development of agriculture, transport engineering, and, of course, to carry out more active cooperation in the service sector. In order to diversify transport arteries, it is also possible to consider possibilities for expanding the capacities of Georgian ports. For these purposes, it is possible to attract financial resources of the Eurasian Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which specialize in financing infrastructure projects, which in the near future will become a good help for the emerging common energy market in the EAEU.
At the same time, the well-known Armenian economist Ashot Tavadyan, agreeing with the importance of the formation of common oil, gas and electricity markets, pointed out the need to exclude subjective factors. According to him, Armenia is a small country for which the EEU countries continue to be the main export market. According to the economist, it is by no means possible to leave bottlenecks in this issue. He pointed out the need for a coordinated energy tariff policy, a coordinated monetary policy and the development of a Marshall micro-plan for Armenia in order to equalize the economic situation in the country with other states of the Union. As for unblocking transport communications, then, as Ashot Tavadyan noted, based on the behavior of opponents, this possibility should be treated with a certain degree of skepticism. He recalled that Azerbaijan blocked the Vardenis-Martakert highway. In addition, the issue of the return of Armenian prisoners of war, many of whom Baku has declared terrorists, has not been resolved.
Another Armenian economist Tatul Manaseryan agreed with Tavadyan's opinion. He noted that the position of Baku and Ankara is more taken into account in the issue of unblocking transport communications, and if internal arteries (Vardenes-Martakert) are blocked, then it is very difficult to talk about unblocking external communications.
