ArmInfo.At this stage, the opening of the land border with Turkey will have a negative impact on the Armenian economy. By opening the doors to the Turkish market, the country today risks incurring losses in a number of sectors of the national economy. Economist, expert of the AMBERD Research Center Hayk Bejanyan, stated this in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent.
Meanwhile, the expert noted that open land borders with neighboring countries are an important agenda for any state, since any road opens the way to new opportunities, at least at the level of expectations. And in this context, the unblocking of the borders with Turkey is no exception.
According to Bejanyan, in this context, last year, when the process of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations was launched, the experts of the AMBERD Research Center conducted a study of the economic prospects for opening the border and assessed the possible risks associated with it. Studies, however, have shown that at this stage, the opening of the border with Turkey for certain sectors of the Armenian economy contains more risks than opportunities.
At the same time, the economist admits that sooner or later the borders between Armenia and Turkey should be opened. However, this should be done carefully and without undue haste: only after a series of preparatory work has been carried out and a certain protection shell has been formed for especially vulnerable sectors of the Armenian economy. "After all, to open the doors to the huge Turkish market, being unprepared, means voluntarily giving up the local market to foreign products and putting an end to the development of vital sectors of the domestic economy. This will raise the issue of the viability of a number of industries, in particular agriculture, since cheaper Turkish agricultural products threaten to displace local ones, which will negatively affect the well-being of the population and the economy as a whole", he notes.
Nevertheless, according to the expert, there are also positive aspects in deblocking communications, especially at this stage, when numerous communication routes and supply chains have been disrupted in the conditions of international turbulence. In this perspective, there are separate areas, specific businessmen who will benefit from the opening of borders. For transport workers, for example, this will mean expanding transit opportunities, access to the sea and reducing travel time. However, according to the economist, if we are talking about the global interests of the state and its economy, we need to consider the issue in a comprehensive manner, and not be guided by the interests of individual segments of the economy.
As for the assessment of the Ministry of Economy and its head Vahan Kerobyan that in the medium term the effect of economic growth from opening the borders with Turkey may reach 30%, then, as Bejanyan noted, when such estimates and specific figures are voiced, it would be appropriate to inform the public about specific studies underlying such assessments.
Nevertheless, the expert is convinced that at this stage Armenia is not ready to open the land border with Turkey. "In order to take such a step, Armenia, at least at the experimental-analytical level, should be confident in its effectiveness. We need to clearly assess the capabilities of the sectors of the economy and understand in which areas the Republic of Armenia will be most vulnerable. Legislation should then be developed to protect the domestic producer. It is necessary to think about the introduction of assistance mechanisms, in particular, subsidies, tariff policy, which will provide opportunities for stable growth for Armenian business entities, and not rely on chance with the emergence of new external players in the local market", Hayk Bedjanyan sums up.
