Artur Avetisyan: All discussions regarding the choice of a future NPP  model will remain mere talk until there is a vision for strategic  development

ArmInfo.. Armenia has become captive to political statements and doesn't really know what it wants. Artur Avetisyan, energy security expert, PhD in engineering  and Associate Professor, expressed this viewpoint in an interview  with an ArmInfo correspondent, when commenting on the Armenia-US MoU  on energy cooperation signed on August 8, as well as yesterday's  Pashinyan-Putin meeting at the World Atomic Week forum in Moscow.

The situation "on paper"

On August 8, the Armenian government signed three memorandums of  understanding with the American side in Washington, one of which  includes cooperation in the energy sector. The latter envisages four  main directions: nuclear energy in the civilian sector, including  small modular reactor (SMR) technologies; investment promotion to  strengthen critical energy infrastructure, including the development  of battery production plants for renewable energy sources; investment  promotion in the modernization of Armenia's electricity transmission  and distribution networks, and enhancing the cybersecurity of the  energy infrastructure, including through technical assistance.

Meanwhile, Unit 2 of operating Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) is  currently undergoing a second program to extend its service life by  10 years, until 2036. By that time, a new nuclear power unit is  scheduled to be built in the country.

Armenia has not yet decided on the model of the new unit.  Negotiations are underway with potential technology suppliers.  Countries such as the United States, Russia, South Korea, and China  have expressed interest in building a new NPP in Armenia. Back in  July 2023, the Armenian government sent a working group to the United  States to familiarize themselves with American nuclear technologies,  small modular reactors, and their developments. Pashinyan has  repeatedly stated that a strategic decision has been made to build a  small modular nuclear power plant. "Why? One of the  important reason  is that, as experts explained to us, accidents at modular nuclear  power plants are considered emergencies of local significance,  meaning that in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant,  there will be no threat beyond 500 meters," Pashinyan stated.

The day before, Nikol Pashinyan, during a meeting with Russian  President Vladimir Putin, said that Yerevan is currently working and  looking for small modular nuclear power plant projects suitable for  Armenia. "And, of course, we have a very active dialogue with Russia  on this issue as well. We cooperate very effectively with the Rosatom  corporation," he said.

The situation "on the ground"

According to Artur Avetisyan, currently, cooperation with the West,  particularly the US and France, in the field of small modular reactor  technology (reactors with a capacity of up to 300 MW), is still in  the realm of general wishes.

Today, the expert community is somewhat cautious about the use of SMR  (small modular reactor) technologies, as they are still shrouded in  uncertainty. While  modular reactors may be attractive  in terms of  the power they offer, but there is no concrete experience  yet-positive or negative-with an operating modular power plant on the  ground, where Armenian specialists could be sent to interact with it,  understand the pros and cons, and answer the question of whether they  are applicable to Armenia.  "China and Russia, in this regard,  currently have a slight advantage over the US, as they operate  modular reactors, but not on the ground. But that's not enough," he  notes. Therefore, he, like other energy security experts, refrains  from making a definitive assessment of the prospects of SMR  technologies.

Meanwhile, he emphasizes, the history of nuclear energy spans  approximately 80 years. This means we've been operating traditional  nuclear power plants for 80 years, and we know their strengths and  weaknesses.  We know their risks and advantages, which are still  unknown with SMRs. It's clear that every manufacturer will promote  its own project, but we have no right to fall for "marketing tricks."

"If Armenia is simply willing to limit itself to being a member of  the peaceful nuclear energy family and isn't considering more serious  development, then perhaps it's worth considering the prospect of  constructing SMRs. And then we can only choose between modular  reactor models proposed by Russia, China, the US, and Europe," he  notes.

The Russian side is also offering a traditional option for building a  1200 MW nuclear power plant. Such facilities already exist in Belarus  and in various regions of the Russian Federation, and they are also  being built by Russia's Rosatom in other countries, Artur Avetisyan  points out. However, this option could also be problematic due to  potential problems with the capacity to absorb such power.

The Sun: help or hindrance

As for the Armenian authorities' optimism  regarding the increasing  share of solar energy in the country's energy balance, and in  particular Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's statement that over the  past seven years we have built "two nuclear power plants," which is  cause for celebration, as "we are able to fully meet domestic needs  with electricity generated entirely by ourselves," the expert noted  that solar energy, which has developed very intensively in Armenia,  has both positive and negative aspects.

Specifically, due to the lack of storage systems, it is already  challenging the country's entire energy system.  As part of the  memorandum with the United States, Armenia is planning to work in  this direction as well, he notes. However, storage stations, as  understood by the Americans, are not so acceptable to the Armenian  side. "We need to build pumped-storage plants, that is, plants built  on the basis of hydroelectric power plants," Avetisyan clarifies.   However,  it's important to understand that nowhere in the world can  solar power ensure sustainable development the way hydroelectric,  nuclear, and thermal power plants can.  Among these options, nuclear  power plants are the undisputed leader, as nuclear energy has no  alternative.  In other words, solar power cannot replace nuclear  power; it can only support it. In this context, the expert points out  that the power generation capacity of traditional nuclear stations is  almost identical to their installed capacity, which is not the case  with solar power plants, whose energy output is highly unstable. It  is within this framework that Armenia must determine its own needs.

Moving beyond words to action

Artur Avetisyan is convinced that any discussions regarding the  choice of a future nuclear power plant model will remain mere talk  until there is a vision for strategic development.

"Our market is small, but at the same time, there is no supply  shortage." We must determine what we need, and not listen to what  Moscow or Washington says, as the development of nuclear energy is a  crucial element in the country's national security. Therefore,  Armenia cannot survive a day without nuclear energy.  Moreover, its  presence guarantees stable economic growth," he points out.

This means that Armenia should conduct a comprehensive analysis and  provide energy companies with input data, for example, on what the  Armenian economy will be like by 2050 and how much electricity it  will consume. Then the energy companies will tell "decision makers"  what nuclear capacity the country needs.

Today, in terms of numbers, the expert believes, Armenia needs a new  modular power plant with a capacity of at least 600 MW. "The  installed capacity of an operating nuclear power plant unit is  approximately 450- 480 MW. This is approximately 25-30% of the  country's energy balance." Taking into account natural development  and assuming we are not talking about sudden growth but rather  maintaining the current situation, the country needs a nuclear power  plant with a capacity of at least 600 MW. If Armenia keeps up with  the times by developing artificial intelligence, building a more  energy-intensive economy, etc. This means we will need larger  generation capacities-around 1,200 MW, and in a very optimistic  scenario, up to 2,000-2,200 MW," he explains.

Not to politicize in order to succeed

An energy security expert notes that he understands the level of  politicization of this issue. However, according to him, experts have  no right to give in to these sentiments. Their task is to ensure  Armenia's smooth growth in energy terms.

"My position is that Armenia doesn't have much time, and it was high   time for it to make a decision. For me, as a specialist, the SMR  option, whether Russian, Chinese, American, or French, is  unacceptable.  Firstly, because there's an element of uncertainty,  and secondly, I think Armenia risks missing the deadline.  After all,  it's not just a matter of making a decision. It will also take time  to implement and implement as- yet-untested technologies," Avetisyan  notes.

If Armenia had 10 or even 20 years to study and make a decision, then  perhaps we could take a break and take stock, but we don't have that  time; we need to make a decision today. At the moment, given our  capabilities and, most importantly, the information available, two  options are most preferable for Armenia.  The first option is that of  the American Westinghouse (one of the leading electrical engineering  companies in the US) - the construction of two nuclear power plants  with a capacity of 300 MW. The second option is the nuclear power  plant project proposed by the Russian side, with a capacity of 1,200  MW, but on the condition of having  a long-term electricity supply  agreement with Iran, so that we can become a guaranteed supplier of  electricity to Iran, which would ensure the safe and efficient  operation of this nuclear power plant.

The first option will be more expensive, as American technology is  more expensive. However, the US may be willing to offer more  favorable terms, which would offset the "high cost."

"In both cases, although with great difficulty, I think we will meet  the deadline," Artur Avetisyan concludes.