ArmInfo.. Armenia has become captive to political statements and doesn't really know what it wants. Artur Avetisyan, energy security expert, PhD in engineering and Associate Professor, expressed this viewpoint in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent, when commenting on the Armenia-US MoU on energy cooperation signed on August 8, as well as yesterday's Pashinyan-Putin meeting at the World Atomic Week forum in Moscow.
The situation "on paper"
On August 8, the Armenian government signed three memorandums of understanding with the American side in Washington, one of which includes cooperation in the energy sector. The latter envisages four main directions: nuclear energy in the civilian sector, including small modular reactor (SMR) technologies; investment promotion to strengthen critical energy infrastructure, including the development of battery production plants for renewable energy sources; investment promotion in the modernization of Armenia's electricity transmission and distribution networks, and enhancing the cybersecurity of the energy infrastructure, including through technical assistance.
Meanwhile, Unit 2 of operating Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) is currently undergoing a second program to extend its service life by 10 years, until 2036. By that time, a new nuclear power unit is scheduled to be built in the country.
Armenia has not yet decided on the model of the new unit. Negotiations are underway with potential technology suppliers. Countries such as the United States, Russia, South Korea, and China have expressed interest in building a new NPP in Armenia. Back in July 2023, the Armenian government sent a working group to the United States to familiarize themselves with American nuclear technologies, small modular reactors, and their developments. Pashinyan has repeatedly stated that a strategic decision has been made to build a small modular nuclear power plant. "Why? One of the important reason is that, as experts explained to us, accidents at modular nuclear power plants are considered emergencies of local significance, meaning that in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant, there will be no threat beyond 500 meters," Pashinyan stated.
The day before, Nikol Pashinyan, during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Yerevan is currently working and looking for small modular nuclear power plant projects suitable for Armenia. "And, of course, we have a very active dialogue with Russia on this issue as well. We cooperate very effectively with the Rosatom corporation," he said.
The situation "on the ground"
According to Artur Avetisyan, currently, cooperation with the West, particularly the US and France, in the field of small modular reactor technology (reactors with a capacity of up to 300 MW), is still in the realm of general wishes.
Today, the expert community is somewhat cautious about the use of SMR (small modular reactor) technologies, as they are still shrouded in uncertainty. While modular reactors may be attractive in terms of the power they offer, but there is no concrete experience yet-positive or negative-with an operating modular power plant on the ground, where Armenian specialists could be sent to interact with it, understand the pros and cons, and answer the question of whether they are applicable to Armenia. "China and Russia, in this regard, currently have a slight advantage over the US, as they operate modular reactors, but not on the ground. But that's not enough," he notes. Therefore, he, like other energy security experts, refrains from making a definitive assessment of the prospects of SMR technologies.
Meanwhile, he emphasizes, the history of nuclear energy spans approximately 80 years. This means we've been operating traditional nuclear power plants for 80 years, and we know their strengths and weaknesses. We know their risks and advantages, which are still unknown with SMRs. It's clear that every manufacturer will promote its own project, but we have no right to fall for "marketing tricks."
"If Armenia is simply willing to limit itself to being a member of the peaceful nuclear energy family and isn't considering more serious development, then perhaps it's worth considering the prospect of constructing SMRs. And then we can only choose between modular reactor models proposed by Russia, China, the US, and Europe," he notes.
The Russian side is also offering a traditional option for building a 1200 MW nuclear power plant. Such facilities already exist in Belarus and in various regions of the Russian Federation, and they are also being built by Russia's Rosatom in other countries, Artur Avetisyan points out. However, this option could also be problematic due to potential problems with the capacity to absorb such power.
The Sun: help or hindrance
As for the Armenian authorities' optimism regarding the increasing share of solar energy in the country's energy balance, and in particular Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's statement that over the past seven years we have built "two nuclear power plants," which is cause for celebration, as "we are able to fully meet domestic needs with electricity generated entirely by ourselves," the expert noted that solar energy, which has developed very intensively in Armenia, has both positive and negative aspects.
Specifically, due to the lack of storage systems, it is already challenging the country's entire energy system. As part of the memorandum with the United States, Armenia is planning to work in this direction as well, he notes. However, storage stations, as understood by the Americans, are not so acceptable to the Armenian side. "We need to build pumped-storage plants, that is, plants built on the basis of hydroelectric power plants," Avetisyan clarifies. However, it's important to understand that nowhere in the world can solar power ensure sustainable development the way hydroelectric, nuclear, and thermal power plants can. Among these options, nuclear power plants are the undisputed leader, as nuclear energy has no alternative. In other words, solar power cannot replace nuclear power; it can only support it. In this context, the expert points out that the power generation capacity of traditional nuclear stations is almost identical to their installed capacity, which is not the case with solar power plants, whose energy output is highly unstable. It is within this framework that Armenia must determine its own needs.
Moving beyond words to action
Artur Avetisyan is convinced that any discussions regarding the choice of a future nuclear power plant model will remain mere talk until there is a vision for strategic development.
"Our market is small, but at the same time, there is no supply shortage." We must determine what we need, and not listen to what Moscow or Washington says, as the development of nuclear energy is a crucial element in the country's national security. Therefore, Armenia cannot survive a day without nuclear energy. Moreover, its presence guarantees stable economic growth," he points out.
This means that Armenia should conduct a comprehensive analysis and provide energy companies with input data, for example, on what the Armenian economy will be like by 2050 and how much electricity it will consume. Then the energy companies will tell "decision makers" what nuclear capacity the country needs.
Today, in terms of numbers, the expert believes, Armenia needs a new modular power plant with a capacity of at least 600 MW. "The installed capacity of an operating nuclear power plant unit is approximately 450- 480 MW. This is approximately 25-30% of the country's energy balance." Taking into account natural development and assuming we are not talking about sudden growth but rather maintaining the current situation, the country needs a nuclear power plant with a capacity of at least 600 MW. If Armenia keeps up with the times by developing artificial intelligence, building a more energy-intensive economy, etc. This means we will need larger generation capacities-around 1,200 MW, and in a very optimistic scenario, up to 2,000-2,200 MW," he explains.
Not to politicize in order to succeed
An energy security expert notes that he understands the level of politicization of this issue. However, according to him, experts have no right to give in to these sentiments. Their task is to ensure Armenia's smooth growth in energy terms.
"My position is that Armenia doesn't have much time, and it was high time for it to make a decision. For me, as a specialist, the SMR option, whether Russian, Chinese, American, or French, is unacceptable. Firstly, because there's an element of uncertainty, and secondly, I think Armenia risks missing the deadline. After all, it's not just a matter of making a decision. It will also take time to implement and implement as- yet-untested technologies," Avetisyan notes.
If Armenia had 10 or even 20 years to study and make a decision, then perhaps we could take a break and take stock, but we don't have that time; we need to make a decision today. At the moment, given our capabilities and, most importantly, the information available, two options are most preferable for Armenia. The first option is that of the American Westinghouse (one of the leading electrical engineering companies in the US) - the construction of two nuclear power plants with a capacity of 300 MW. The second option is the nuclear power plant project proposed by the Russian side, with a capacity of 1,200 MW, but on the condition of having a long-term electricity supply agreement with Iran, so that we can become a guaranteed supplier of electricity to Iran, which would ensure the safe and efficient operation of this nuclear power plant.
The first option will be more expensive, as American technology is more expensive. However, the US may be willing to offer more favorable terms, which would offset the "high cost."
"In both cases, although with great difficulty, I think we will meet the deadline," Artur Avetisyan concludes.
